Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:55:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9dc3…c64c crypto 223 markets active 1h ago coverage 636d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$70 (-1%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate34%75W / 144L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$68
14 days+$68
30 days+$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$141
other 13% +$191
tech 5% −$101
politics 4% +$104
world 2% +$22
finance 2% −$113
sports 1% +$60
culture 0% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-33.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +213.9% +184.0% 60% 60% +64.9%
≤30d 5 +213.9% +184.0% 60% 60% +64.9%
≤90d 149 -36.9% -42.9% 28% 28% -31.6%
all 219 -26.0% -33.0% 34% 32% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.0% 32% -9.6%
10% -39.4% 26% -18.3%
15% -45.3% 22% -26.2%
20% -50.6% 18% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$10 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

636d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses75 / 144
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)219 / 223
History coverage636d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 219 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 21 $50 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $6 +$14 +245%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Colomb Jun 18 $7 +$66 +1007%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Apr 28 $15 −$4 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 28 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Apr 28 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-04-27? Apr 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 28 $110 −$109 -99%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 28 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam Apr 27 $100 −$1 -1%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-04-26? Apr 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-26? Apr 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $6 +$5 +79%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $5 +$5 +97%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $16 +$6 +38%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 25 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 25 $5 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $10 +$20 +202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Apr 25 $1 +$1 +89%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-04-24? Apr 25 $9 +$4 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Apr 24 $4 −$4 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Apr 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 24 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Apr 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-23? Apr 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score AND Argentina vs. Austria: BUY 11¢ $5 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 97¢ $59 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Urugua BUY 8¢ $5 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 82¢ $50 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $14 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $6 3d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Switzerland vs. Bosnia and He BUY 2¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 5d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Colomb BUY 9¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 54d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 54d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? BUY No 67¢ $90 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 55d
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-04-27? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 55d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? BUY No 75¢ $20 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.39 · official $23.39 · 708 history records