Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:09:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
9D 0x9dc1…ebc6 other 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$58 (+38%) realized +$44 · open +$14
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate55%11W / 9L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$33
14 days+$45
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% +$33
other 27% +$5
crypto 20% +$13
sports 7% +$9
world 3% $0
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +11.0% +0.4% 42% 33% +46.1%
≤30d 20 +21.0% +9.4% 55% 35% +33.9%
≤90d 20 +21.0% +9.4% 55% 35% +33.9%
all 20 +21.0% +9.4% 55% 35% +33.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.4% 35% +33.9%
10% -1.0% 30% +21.0%
15% -10.6% 25% +9.4%
20% -19.4% 25% -1.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +48% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×3.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.79 per $1 lost it wins $4.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized+$44
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses11 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)20 / 27
History coverage16d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 17 $27 +$28 +105%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -73%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 +$1 +19%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$13 +431%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 +$2 +180%
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian Jun 13 $1 $0 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +5%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 08 $13 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 05 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 03 $5 +$9 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +9%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $1 +$1 +101%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $1 $0 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 58m
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 98¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 16¢ $1 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? SELL No $0 5h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY No 21¢ $1 5h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 6h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 79¢ $8 8h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 42¢ $1 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $7 23h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 26h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 26h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 55¢ $3 30h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 38h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 89¢ $3 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $1 3d
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian SELL No 13¢ $1 4d
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian BUY No 20¢ $1 5d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 6d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes $1 7d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $1 7d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 28¢ $1 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 77¢ $15 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.95 · official $67.95 (match) · 56 history records