Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T00:23:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9D
0x9dba…4cf3
crypto · 75 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$57 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$62 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$73
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses25 / 48
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)73 / 75
History coverage328d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 1 History 73 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$8
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $70 $73 +$3 (+4%)
Storm vs. Lynx Lynx 78¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will anyone say "Theater attendance" during the Q2 2025 AMC earnings call? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk say "Grok" 5 or more times during the August 6 AMA? No 21¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will GPT-5 be released on August 6? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Yes 67¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will GPT-5 be released on August 7? No 13¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-06? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk say "Crypto/Bitcoin/Doge" during the August 6 AMA? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Boise State vs. South Florida Boise State 72¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$5 -57%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$6 +158%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $14 −$4 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $14 $0 -1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $27 +$12 +42%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 08 $26 −$1 -4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $23 +$3 +14%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 06 $27 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 06 $41 −$4 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 06 $22 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 06 $26 +$5 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 06 $12 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 06 $27 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 06 $7 +$5 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
ITF Wuning: Xinxin Yao vs Reina Goto Jun 06 $5 +$2 +42%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $7 −$1 -14%
Connecticut Sun vs. Chicago Sky Jun 06 $5 +$2 +40%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $8 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 05 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 05 $4 +$7 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
East Carolina vs. NC State Aug 29 $10 +$2 +20%
Mystics vs. Liberty Aug 29 $10 +$3 +32%
Sky vs. Mercury Aug 29 $11 +$2 +16%
Storm vs. Lynx Aug 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Boise State vs. South Florida Aug 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Mercury vs. Sparks Aug 28 $20 +$5 +27%
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the most votes in the first round of the Aug 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15? Aug 16 $4 +$1 +14%
Will Samuel Doria Medina win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 15 $88 −$3 -3%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 13 $15 $0 -3%
Will Powell say "Trump" during September press conference? Aug 12 $5 −$1 -12%
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" 3+ times during his next video? Aug 10 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Israel strike Syria on July 21? Aug 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Powell say "Spike" during July Press Conference? Aug 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $120K and $121K on July 21? Aug 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during July Press Conference? Aug 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118K and $119K on July 25 at 5PM Aug 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 21? Aug 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times August 1–August 8? Aug 06 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during July Press Conference? Aug 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 34% +$39
crypto 30% −$36
politics 13% −$23
sports 13% −$8
tech 6% −$50
economics 2% +$23
world 1% +$1
finance 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $14 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 47¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 BUY 28¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -3.4% -12.6% 44% 40% -7.4%
≤30d 29 -7.6% -16.4% 41% 38% -9.1%
≤90d 29 -7.6% -16.4% 41% 38% -9.1%
all 73 -8.4% -17.2% 34% 32% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 32% -15.8%
10% -25.1% 23% -23.8%
15% -32.3% 16% -31.2%
20% -39.0% 11% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.96 · official $72.96 (match) · 198 history records