Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:01:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9db8…ff7e crypto 801 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$168 (-5%) realized −$168 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR66%break-even
Win rate67%533W / 268L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day47.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$148
14 days−$275
30 days−$232
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$232
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 -17.6% -25.5% 57% 57% -29.7%
≤30d 801 -2.0% -11.3% 67% 66% -15.5%
≤90d 801 -2.0% -11.3% 67% 66% -15.5%
all 801 -2.0% -11.3% 67% 66% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 66% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 60% -23.6%
15% -27.5% 30% -31.0%
20% -34.6% 8% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$168
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses533 / 268
Open positions0
Markets (closed)801 / 801
History coverage19d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day47.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 801 Trades
no open positions (124 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $12 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $3 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $4 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $3 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $4 32h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 36h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $4 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 40h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $3 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1592 history records