Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:39:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9db8…2eff sports 69 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 7d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (457 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$49,312 (+28%) realized +$49,312 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate46%32W / 37L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,530per market
Trades / day457.3pace
Fees−$3,292est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$14,130
other 30% −$13,733
crypto 0% −$360
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (457 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +0.3% -9.2% 46% 21% -9.1%
≤30d 69 +3.5% -6.4% 46% 23% -9.5%
≤90d 69 +3.5% -6.4% 46% 23% -9.5%
all 69 +3.5% -6.4% 46% 23% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover457.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.4% 23% -9.5%
10% -15.3% 23% -18.2%
15% ← realistic here -23.5% 22% -26.1%
20% -31.0% 22% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$4,033) neutral
Persistence
early +25% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
33.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,865 vs −$2,477 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$49,312
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses32 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$3,292
Open positions0
Markets (closed)69 / 69
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$2,530
Trades / day457.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 69 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $8,770 +$10,290 +117%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $1,770 −$1,770 -100%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $7,410 −$7,332 -99%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $1 $0 -2%
Japan to score first vs. Sweden? Jun 25 $195 +$6 +3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $7,262 +$11,807 +163%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $4,631 −$4,631 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $5 +$1 +26%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $8,764 −$8,750 -100%
Brazil to score first vs. Scotland? Jun 25 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $2,266 −$2,266 -100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $2,487 −$2,412 -97%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: South Africa O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $1 $0 +3%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $4,868 +$4,946 +102%
Morocco to score first vs. Haiti? Jun 24 $2,443 +$9,397 +385%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $1,543 +$53 +3%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $3,466 −$3,387 -98%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $306 −$298 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $265 +$11 +4%
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $1,293 +$48 +4%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $6,636 −$6,636 -100%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $5,134 +$15,879 +309%
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $4,205 +$75 +2%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $5,803 −$3,261 -56%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $5,402 −$5,402 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $45 −$45 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $92 −$1 -1%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $2,090 −$2,090 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3,030 −$3,030 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,383 −$1,383 -100%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $17,880 −$7,162 -40%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $10 $0 -4%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $2,661 +$161 +6%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $110 −$39 -35%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $6,048 −$6,048 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $46 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4,033 +$5,976 +148%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $1,276 +$20 +2%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $4,107 +$79 +2%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $36 +$59 +165%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $1,048 +$1,405 +134%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $1,657 +$8,171 +493%
Belgium to score first vs. IR Iran? Jun 21 $1,371 +$3,451 +252%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $3,559 −$3,559 -100%
Spain to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $390 −$390 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $2 $0 +4%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) Jun 21 $13 +$1 +6%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $4,050 +$150 +4%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $468 +$12 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 48¢ $4 1h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 47¢ $1,296 1h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 46¢ $4 1h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 45¢ $25 1h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 45¢ $140 1h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 45¢ $61 1h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 45¢ $7,241 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY No 15¢ $1,735 3h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY No 15¢ $0 3h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY No 15¢ $1 3h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY No 15¢ $0 3h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY No 15¢ $17 3h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY No 15¢ $1 3h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY No 15¢ $1 3h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY No 15¢ $0 3h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY No 15¢ $14 3h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 SELL Under 39¢ $21 6h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 SELL Under 39¢ $23 6h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 SELL Under 39¢ $33 6h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $990 6h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $19 6h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $3,396 6h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $3,005 6h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 1.5 SELL Under 17¢ $1 6h
Japan to score first vs. Sweden? SELL No 46¢ $201 6h
Japan to score first vs. Sweden? BUY No 45¢ $15 6h
Japan to score first vs. Sweden? BUY No 45¢ $7 6h
Japan to score first vs. Sweden? BUY No 45¢ $75 6h
Japan to score first vs. Sweden? BUY No 45¢ $3 6h
Japan to score first vs. Sweden? BUY No 45¢ $17 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records