Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:47:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9db6…19ac tech 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 213d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$41 (+0%) realized +$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate31%11W / 24L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$355per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% −$9
other 25% −$2
tech 16% +$50
economics 14% −$2
sports 5% −$1
finance 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 5 +0.3% -9.3% 20% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 19 +0.1% -9.4% 16% 0% -9.6%
all 35 +2.1% -7.6% 31% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 3% -9.3%
10% -16.5% 3% -18.0%
15% -24.5% 3% -25.9%
20% -31.9% 3% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$614) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×6.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.95 per $1 lost it wins $2.95
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

213d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized+$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses11 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage213d
Avg bet$355
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $107 $107 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 18 $103 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $104 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 17 $101 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $102 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $105 +$2 +2%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 13 $1,051 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $1,055 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 13 $1,053 −$1 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $1,061 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $1,062 −$4 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $1,060 −$2 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 01 $112 +$1 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 14 $612 −$1 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 14 $612 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $613 −$1 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $614 −$1 -0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 14 $614 −$1 -0%
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 14 $615 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 09 $125 +$1 +1%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Mar 17 $125 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 17 $125 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 17 $125 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 17 $125 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Mar 01 $124 +$1 +1%
Will Claude 5 be released on February 19, 2026? Feb 19 $124 $0 -0%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Feb 19 $125 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 19 $119 +$5 +4%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 31 $55 +$3 +5%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jan 31 $60 +$2 +3%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? Jan 15 $462 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 15 $113 +$2 +2%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Dec 22 $85 +$5 +6%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 11 $56 +$29 +51%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Dec 01 $54 +$3 +5%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Nov 23 $19 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $107 1h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $103 1h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $103 16h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $103 16h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $104 17h
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $101 17h
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $101 18h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $101 18h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $102 20h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 98¢ $105 28d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $1,049 35d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $1,051 35d
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,054 35d
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,055 35d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $1,051 36d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $1,053 36d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,059 36d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,061 36d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $1,058 36d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $1,062 36d
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,059 36d
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,060 36d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 99¢ $112 58d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $611 64d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $612 64d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $612 64d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $612 64d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $612 64d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $613 64d
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $613 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.78 · official $106.72 (match) · 79 history records