Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:35:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9db6…e1f8 crypto 1016 markets active 0h ago coverage 100d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 100d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$136 (-2%) realized −$150 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate46%455W / 543L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day30.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$256now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days−$148
14 days−$148
30 days−$115
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$214
weather 17% −$76
other 1% +$6
sports 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 -18.1% -25.9% 40% 39% -20.5%
≤30d 122 -10.0% -18.6% 48% 46% -17.0%
≤90d 484 -2.5% -11.7% 47% 40% -14.1%
all 998 -0.3% -9.8% 46% 41% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 41% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 35% -21.3%
15% -26.3% 28% -28.9%
20% -33.5% 21% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$256
Realized−$150
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses455 / 543
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions18
Markets (closed)998 / 1016
History coverage100d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day30.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 998 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 23? No 62¢ 100¢ $18 $30 +$11 (+60%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 24? No 70¢ 70¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 24? No 56¢ 55¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 24? No 65¢ 65¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 24? No 70¢ 69¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 24? No 59¢ 60¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 24? No 65¢ 60¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 24? No 53¢ 52¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $7 $11 +$4 (+63%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 24? No 65¢ 62¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 23? No 69¢ 72¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 24? No 67¢ 66¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 24? No 50¢ 48¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 24? No 64¢ 63¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 24? Jun 24 $8 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 24 $17 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 23 $4 +$3 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 23? Jun 23 $9 +$4 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 23? Jun 23 $12 +$6 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 23? Jun 23 $9 +$11 +111%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 23? Jun 23 $19 +$10 +51%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 23 $20 +$9 +43%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 23 $27 +$14 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 23? Jun 23 $5 −$4 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 23? Jun 23 $23 −$19 -82%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? Jun 23 $6 +$3 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 23? Jun 23 $12 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 23 $10 −$9 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 23? Jun 23 $20 −$19 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 22? Jun 23 $9 +$3 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 22? Jun 23 $7 +$3 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 22? Jun 23 $13 +$5 +36%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 23 $31 +$15 +48%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $24 +$7 +30%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 22 $6 +$2 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 22? Jun 22 $29 −$15 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 22? Jun 22 $7 −$6 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 22? Jun 22 $13 +$13 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 22? Jun 22 $25 −$9 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 22? Jun 22 $31 −$10 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 22? Jun 22 $12 −$4 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 22? Jun 22 $13 −$4 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 22? Jun 22 $14 −$5 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 22? Jun 22 $23 −$8 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 22? Jun 22 $4 −$1 -31%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 22 $20 −$6 -30%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 22 $13 −$6 -47%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $45 −$21 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 21? Jun 22 $17 +$11 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 21? Jun 22 $7 +$2 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 21? Jun 22 $6 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 21? Jun 22 $14 +$4 +27%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 22 $39 −$5 -14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $11 +$3 +28%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $45 +$12 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 21? Jun 21 $9 −$2 -20%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 21 $27 −$17 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 21? Jun 21 $12 −$12 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 21? Jun 21 $22 −$9 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 21? Jun 21 $25 −$21 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 21? Jun 21 $5 −$2 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 21? Jun 21 $7 +$2 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 24? SELL No 68¢ $2 19m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 24? SELL No 69¢ $6 24m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL No 67¢ $16 24m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY No 64¢ $5 25m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 23? BUY No 69¢ $8 54m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 24? BUY No 67¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 24? BUY No 65¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 24? BUY No 70¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 24? BUY No 53¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 24? BUY No 59¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 24? BUY No 70¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 23? SELL No 99¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $41 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 24? BUY No 70¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 24? BUY No 65¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 23? SELL No 16¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 23? SELL No 51¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 23? SELL No 13¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 23? BUY No 52¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 70¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 24? BUY No 50¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? SELL No 28¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 24? BUY No 65¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? SELL No 29¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 56¢ $27 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $255.79 · official $255.80 (match) · 3500 history records