Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:34:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9db0…a2a7 politics 22 markets active 3h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$363 (-86%) realized −$328 · open −$35
Gross ROI / mkt -92% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -93% what you keep after slip
Net edge-93%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate5%1W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$14
14 days−$46
30 days−$236
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 62% −$259
world 25% −$57
crypto 8% −$33
other 5% −$20
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-92.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -56.0% -60.2% 33% 33% -92.2%
≤30d 14 -90.6% -91.5% 7% 7% -99.5%
≤90d 21 -91.6% -92.4% 5% 5% -97.0%
all 21 -91.6% -92.4% 5% 5% -97.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -92.4% 5% -97.0%
10% -93.1% 5% -97.3%
15% -93.8% 0% -97.6%
20% -94.4% 0% -97.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -97% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -92% · $-wt -97% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -96% → late -88% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$17 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$328
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses1 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage38d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No $70 $35 −$35 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$4 -94%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 +32%
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $11 −$10 -94%
Will SpaceX list on the NASDAQ? Jun 12 $0 $0 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, May 27 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 2 May 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 25 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? May 25 $149 −$149 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 22, May 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 2 May 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 2 May 21 $41 −$40 -96%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 22, May 21 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 2 May 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 14 $22 −$12 -56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No $50 2h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No $20 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up $5 18h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes $10 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 6d
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? BUY No $20 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 13? BUY No $11 8d
Will SpaceX list on the NASDAQ? BUY No $0 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down $0 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down $0 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down $0 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down $0 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down $0 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up $1 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up $11 26d
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 2 BUY Yes $0 26d
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 2 BUY Yes $0 26d
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 2 BUY Yes $0 26d
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 2 BUY Yes $0 26d
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 2 BUY Yes $3 26d
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? BUY Yes $1 27d
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? BUY Yes $0 27d
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? BUY Yes $125 27d
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? BUY Yes $0 27d
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? BUY Yes $0 27d
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? BUY Yes $22 27d
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? BUY Yes $2 27d
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, BUY Yes $0 27d
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, BUY Yes $0 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.00 · official $35.00 (match) · 164 history records