Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:06:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9db0…5d9b crypto 1014 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d only
✗ bot/MM pace (188 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,688 (+10%) realized +$1,696 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%543W / 469L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day188.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$123
7 days+$815
14 days+$531
30 days+$531
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$523
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (188 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 701 +3.2% -6.6% 55% 55% -2.6%
≤30d 1012 +0.4% -9.2% 54% 54% -6.7%
≤90d 1012 +0.4% -9.2% 54% 54% -6.7%
all 1012 +0.4% -9.2% 54% 54% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover188.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 54% -6.7%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 54% -15.6%
15% -25.8% 53% -23.8%
20% -33.1% 48% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$16 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized+$1,696
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses543 / 469
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1012 / 1014
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$17
Trades / day188.0
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1012 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Up 19¢ 16¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-15%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Up 53¢ 26¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$17 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$6 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$7 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$10 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$13 +129%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$14 +134%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$13 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$8 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$39 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$8 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$28 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$14 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$8 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$11 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$10 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$10 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$7 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$17 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$20 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $21 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $21 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $14 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.38 · official $60.67 · 3500 history records