Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:47:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9daa…1134 crypto 120 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$94 (-16%) realized −$116 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate45%54W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days−$27
14 days−$27
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$63
other 33% −$21
sports 9% −$2
weather 5% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-34.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -38.3% -44.2% 33% 25% -16.3%
≤30d 12 -38.3% -44.2% 33% 25% -16.3%
≤90d 119 -28.0% -34.8% 45% 24% -28.8%
all 119 -28.0% -34.8% 45% 24% -28.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.8% 24% -28.8%
10% -41.1% 18% -35.6%
15% -46.7% 14% -41.8%
20% -52.0% 11% -47.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized−$116
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses54 / 65
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)119 / 120
History coverage76d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 82¢ 100¢ $100 $122 +$22 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $41 −$8 -20%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$34 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 15 $10 +$6 +62%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $10 +$9 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $25 $0 +2%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $26 −$12 -48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $35 +$21 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 16 $3 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 16 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 16 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 16 $3 +$2 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 16? May 16 $17 −$8 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 16? May 15 $3 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 15 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 15 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 15 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 15 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 15 $1 $0 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 15? May 15 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 14 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 14? May 14 $1 +$3 +285%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 14 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 13 $1 +$7 +617%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 13? May 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $70 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $30 1h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 41¢ $33 1h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $41 27h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 30h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 35¢ $16 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 32h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 32h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2d
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 2d
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $19 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $13 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 74¢ $56 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $26 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 45¢ $35 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.89 · official $121.89 (match) · 284 history records