Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:26:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9da9…abf7 crypto 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$28 (-11%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate58%7W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +1.7% -8.0% 58% 50% -20.3%
≤30d 12 +1.7% -8.0% 58% 50% -20.3%
≤90d 12 +1.7% -8.0% 58% 50% -20.3%
all 12 +1.7% -8.0% 58% 50% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 50% -20.3%
10% -16.8% 33% -27.9%
15% -24.8% 33% -34.9%
20% -32.2% 33% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$16 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses7 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$25 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$28 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 31 history records