Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:14:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9D 0x9da9…453f sports 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$64 (+4%) realized +$33 · open +$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%15W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$181now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$108
7 days−$238
14 days−$238
30 days−$238
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$375
other 45% −$264
crypto 5% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -6.0% -14.9% 38% 33% -35.8%
≤30d 21 -6.0% -14.9% 38% 33% -35.8%
≤90d 29 +9.2% -1.2% 48% 45% -3.8%
all 35 +0.7% -8.9% 43% 40% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 40% -6.1%
10% -17.6% 40% -15.1%
15% -25.6% 37% -23.3%
20% -32.9% 37% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$36 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$181
Realized+$33
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses15 / 20
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage97d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 70¢ 84¢ $150 $181 +$31 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $99 +$52 +52%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $174 −$172 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +98%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 +$15 +282%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 +$16 +156%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $62 −$60 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $51 +$187 +365%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $51 +$49 +97%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $51 −$37 -73%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $17 −$17 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $102 +$239 +234%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $51 +$68 +134%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $45 +$33 +73%
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) May 10 $50 +$13 +26%
UFC 328: Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon (Lightweight, Prelims) May 10 $49 −$49 -100%
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) May 10 $51 +$35 +70%
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) May 10 $51 +$27 +54%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 09 $51 −$50 -99%
Solana Up or Down - March 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Mar 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Solana Up or Down - March 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Mar 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Mar 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Solana Up or Down - March 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Mar 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Mar 12 $15 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Mar 12 $10 +$17 +172%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $52 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $48 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $52 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $99 5h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 29h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 30h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 31h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $71 32h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 32h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 33h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? SELL Yes 25¢ $10 33h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? SELL Yes 9¢ $20 33h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? SELL Yes 16¢ $26 33h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $71 33h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 34h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 34h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 34h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 35h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 35h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 35h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 35h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 35h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 35h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 36h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 36h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 36h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 36h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Derrick Lewis 6¢ $14 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 26¢ $17 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $181.24 · official $181.24 (match) · 65 history records