Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:06:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9da9…43d1 other 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$33 (-6%) realized −$32 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%4W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$10
14 days−$27
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% −$4
other 47% +$13
crypto 6% −$34
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -32.8% -39.2% 33% 33% +1.1%
≤30d 15 -1.3% -10.7% 27% 27% -14.6%
≤90d 15 -1.3% -10.7% 27% 27% -14.6%
all 15 -1.3% -10.7% 27% 27% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 27% -14.6%
10% -19.2% 20% -22.8%
15% -27.0% 20% -30.2%
20% -34.2% 20% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +44% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$20 · ×2.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized−$32
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses4 / 11
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage12d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-1.5) France 77¢ 76¢ $85 $84 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 22 $10 −$2 -17%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $73 +$14 +19%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$23 +115%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $34 −$14 -42%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $73 −$39 -53%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $35 −$34 -98%
Australia to win the second half? Jun 14 $10 +$61 +591%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$20 -64%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $73 +$98 +134%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $42 −$42 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 77¢ $85 3m
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Argentina 7¢ $9 32m
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 8¢ $10 34m
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 48¢ $87 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 40¢ $2 2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 39¢ $71 2h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 6d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 7d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 7d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 7d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $43 7d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 7d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $20 7d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $34 7d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 36¢ $34 7d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $73 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $35 8d
Australia to win the second half? SELL Yes 99¢ $71 8d
Australia to win the second half? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 8d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 21¢ $11 8d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 100¢ $171 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $73 9d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 34¢ $42 11d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 32¢ $31 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.23 · official $84.23 (match) · 25 history records