Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:25:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
9D 0x9da7…8d0f sports 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 570d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4,469 (-12%) realized −$4,458 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate79%55W / 15L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$530per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$141est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$3,118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,188
7 days+$1,553
14 days+$2,117
30 days+$2,117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$4,442
other 12% +$20
politics 1% +$5
world 0% −$64
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +22.2% +10.6% 100% 50% +16.7%
≤30d 7 +20.6% +9.1% 86% 43% +19.4%
≤90d 14 -14.4% -22.5% 64% 36% -8.7%
all 70 -7.4% -16.2% 79% 36% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 36% -21.3%
10% -24.2% 16% -28.8%
15% -31.5% 7% -35.7%
20% -38.2% 6% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$576) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$658 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

570d coverage
Net worth$3,118
Realized−$4,458
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses55 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$141
Open positions2
Markets (closed)70 / 72
History coverage570d
Avg bet$530
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? No 97¢ 97¢ $3,076 $3,065 −$11 (-0%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $1,859 +$1,188 +64%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $1,788 +$94 +5%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $196 +$4 +2%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $1,511 +$267 +18%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $902 +$601 +67%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $60 $0 +0%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $924 −$37 -4%
Hornets vs. Magic Apr 17 $1,890 −$1,890 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Nuggets Apr 09 $682 −$682 -100%
Jazz vs. Pelicans Apr 08 $432 −$432 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Pacers Apr 08 $1,931 +$314 +16%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $2,064 +$617 +30%
Pacers vs. Cavaliers Apr 06 $1,899 +$165 +9%
US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026? Apr 05 $66 −$66 -100%
Warriors vs. Spurs Feb 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Pacers vs. Cavaliers Feb 27 $98 −$98 -100%
Magic vs. Knicks Feb 27 $3,611 −$3,611 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-06? Dec 07 $7 +$1 +9%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-12-06? Dec 07 $20 +$2 +8%
Bucks vs. Pistons Dec 07 $3,009 +$573 +19%
Jazz vs. Knicks Dec 06 $2,678 +$331 +12%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-22? Dec 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will West Ham win on 2025-12-04? Dec 05 $19 +$3 +14%
Celtics vs. Wizards Dec 05 $2,098 +$558 +27%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? Dec 04 $7 +$3 +43%
Rutgers vs. Ohio State Dec 04 $11 $0 +2%
Jets vs. Ravens Dec 04 $11 +$1 +11%
Seahawks vs. Titans Dec 04 $12 +$2 +14%
Will Ukraine win UEFA Group D for 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 21 $9 +$1 +6%
Ravens vs. Browns Nov 21 $8 +$2 +25%
Grizzlies vs. Cavaliers Nov 21 $106 +$23 +22%
Nets vs. Magic Nov 15 $18 +$2 +14%
Minnesota vs. Oregon Nov 15 $23 +$1 +4%
76ers vs. Pistons Nov 15 $18 +$17 +96%
Rockets vs. Grizzlies Nov 14 $4 +$1 +19%
76ers vs. Cavaliers Nov 14 $10 +$1 +8%
Wizards vs. Celtics Nov 14 $29 +$3 +10%
Jazz vs. Pistons Nov 14 $40 +$4 +9%
Pirates vs. Orioles Sep 11 $137 −$137 -100%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2025-09-09? Sep 09 $100 +$12 +12%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Sep 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will Montenegro win on 2025-09-08? Sep 09 $93 +$7 +8%
Titans vs. Broncos Sep 08 $576 −$576 -100%
Will Andorra win on 2025-09-06? Sep 07 $249 +$1 +0%
Will Angola win on 2025-09-04? Sep 06 $668 +$1 +0%
Will Qatar win on 2025-09-03? Sep 04 $168 +$2 +1%
Will Qatar vs. Bahrain end in a draw? Sep 04 $489 +$10 +2%
Guardians vs. Red Sox Sep 03 $450 −$450 -100%
Blue Jays vs. Reds Sep 03 $159 +$141 +89%
Nets vs. Cavaliers Apr 14 $183 −$84 -46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 97¢ $3,079 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $1 32h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $68 32h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $8 32h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $78 32h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $76 32h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $3 32h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $6 32h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $13 32h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $2 32h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $287 32h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $5 32h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $13 32h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $7 32h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $5 32h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $16 32h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $3 32h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $287 32h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $13 32h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $152 32h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $4 32h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $125 32h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $3 32h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $3 32h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $63 32h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $3 32h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $3 32h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $4 32h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $3 32h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $5 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,118.37 · official $3,118.37 (match) · 373 history records