Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:37:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
9D 0x9da5…5573 sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 179d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,422 (+72%) realized +$1,429 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate91%20W / 2L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$704now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$283
30 days+$779
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$1,410
world 7% −$21
tech 2% +$3
other 2% +$6
culture 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +131.1% +109.1% 100% 100% +120.1%
≤90d 15 +59.4% +44.2% 93% 73% +107.6%
all 22 +37.5% +24.4% 91% 55% +92.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +24.4% 55% +92.6%
10% +12.5% 41% +74.1%
15% +1.6% 32% +57.3%
20% -8.4% 23% +41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +129% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +113% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +86% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$21 · ×3.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×34.43 per $1 lost it wins $34.43
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

179d coverage
Net worth$704
Realized+$1,429
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses20 / 2
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage179d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Under 49¢ 48¢ $711 $704 −$7 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $186 +$283 +152%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $107 +$81 +76%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $251 +$415 +165%
LoL: Ozarox Esports vs PCIFIC (BO5) - TCL Playoffs May 26 $113 +$270 +238%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers (BO3) - LCK Chal May 18 $167 +$329 +197%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $61 +$13 +21%
Will March 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record? May 11 $12 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March May 11 $15 $0 +1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? May 11 $15 +$2 +14%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? May 11 $17 +$1 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? May 11 $22 +$3 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? May 11 $21 +$6 +28%
Hawks vs. Knicks May 11 $38 +$15 +39%
76ers vs. Knicks May 11 $62 +$25 +40%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 24 $15 −$15 -99%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 12, 2026 (ET)? Mar 06 $22 $0 +1%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30? Feb 03 $11 +$2 +22%
US x Venezuela ceasefire by January 31? Feb 03 $22 $0 +2%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by Jan 31? Feb 03 $25 +$2 +8%
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Jan 09 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $722 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 39¢ $186 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 56¢ $107 19d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $251 24d
LoL: Ozarox Esports vs PCIFIC (BO5) - TCL Playoffs BUY PCIFIC 29¢ $113 32d
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers (BO3) - LCK Chal BUY Kiwoom DRX Challengers 33¢ $167 40d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Thunder 82¢ $61 47d
76ers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 71¢ $62 52d
Hawks vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 71¢ $38 60d
Cavaliers vs. Raptors BUY Cavaliers 60¢ $15 63d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $21 73d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? BUY No 88¢ $15 94d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY Yes 99¢ $15 100d
Will March 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record? BUY No 99¢ $12 106d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 88¢ $2 112d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 88¢ $1 112d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 88¢ $0 112d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 88¢ $0 112d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 88¢ $0 112d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 88¢ $0 112d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 88¢ $0 112d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 88¢ $0 112d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 88¢ $0 112d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 88¢ $1 112d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 88¢ $6 112d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 88¢ $1 112d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 88¢ $1 112d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 88¢ $9 112d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 96¢ $17 119d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 12, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 99¢ $22 134d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $703.74 · official $703.74 (match) · 57 history records