Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9D 0x9da1…de0e other 110 markets active 2h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+0%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate13%14W / 93L
Whale WR4%big bets
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$343per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$342now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$5
politics 22% −$10
sports 6% +$42
economics 5% −$2
world 4% −$2
culture 2% −$2
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 107 +4.2% -5.8% 13% 9% -9.5%
all 107 +4.2% -5.8% 13% 9% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 9% -9.5%
10% -14.8% 9% -18.1%
15% -23.0% 8% -26.0%
20% -30.6% 8% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 4% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×8.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$342
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses14 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)4%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)107 / 110
History coverage87d
Avg bet$343
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $157 $158 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $105 $105 +$0 (+0%)
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $79 $79 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $81 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $63 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $622 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $397 $0 -0%
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $47 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $124 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $62 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $120 in May? Jun 02 $115 $0 +0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $374 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $50 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $403 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 24 $63 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $364 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $677 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $364 −$1 -0%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 17 $358 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $367 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 14 $365 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $1,058 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $695 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $364 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 09 $693 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 09 $370 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $353 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,376 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $347 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $372 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $665 −$1 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $343 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $692 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? May 01 $27 $0 +1%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $351 −$1 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 28 $346 $0 +0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $728 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $374 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $338 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $345 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 20 $337 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $704 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $368 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $360 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $372 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $1,244 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $362 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $1,023 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $350 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 15 $353 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 14 $362 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $708 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $79 1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $81 17h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $81 19h
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $157 46h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $63 4d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $63 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $42 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $42 6d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $80 7d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $80 7d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $48 11d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $48 11d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $47 12d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $47 12d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $61 13d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $61 13d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $62 14d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $62 14d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $44 16d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $44 17d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 17d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 17d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $61 18d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $61 18d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $105 22d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $63 24d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $63 24d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $59 24d
Will Solana reach $120 in May? BUY No 100¢ $115 24d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $59 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $342.42 · official $342.42 (match) · 324 history records