Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:46:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
9D 0x9d98…c8c6 politics 120 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate8%9W / 110L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$315per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$20
politics 39% −$18
sports 3% +$27
crypto 3% −$1
economics 2% −$1
tech 2% −$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 108 -3.5% -12.7% 5% 4% -9.7%
all 119 +1.6% -8.1% 8% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 7% -9.6%
10% -16.9% 3% -18.2%
15% -24.9% 3% -26.1%
20% -32.3% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$1 · ×10.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses9 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)119 / 120
History coverage116d
Avg bet$315
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 21 $52 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $899 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $34 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $297 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $368 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $45 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $44 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $39 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $55 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $37 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $41 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $324 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $634 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $48 $0 -0%
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 05 $48 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $358 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $37 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $254 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 25 $323 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $302 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $318 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 21 $250 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 19 $227 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $327 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $1,523 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $482 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $531 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $265 $0 -0%
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 11 $268 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $234 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 09 $263 +$1 +0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 07 $238 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 06 $303 −$1 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 05 $884 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $330 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $277 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 04 $337 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 03 $227 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $305 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $600 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $295 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $251 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $304 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $256 −$1 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 22 $310 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $611 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $37 1h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $52 1h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $52 3h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $42 7h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $42 11h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $34 11h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $34 26h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $46 26h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $46 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $34 6d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $34 7d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $45 7d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $45 7d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $44 7d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $44 7d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 9d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 10d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $55 10d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $55 11d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 12d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 13d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $41 13d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $41 13d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $45 13d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $45 14d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $39 14d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 14d
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $48 14d
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $48 14d
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $41 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.98 · official $36.98 (match) · 378 history records