Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:48:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
9D 0x9d95…b844 crypto 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 182d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,413 (-17%) realized −$2,413 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate57%21W / 16L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$392per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,337
7 days−$1,337
14 days−$1,337
30 days−$1,337
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$2,969
sports 6% −$399
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -47.3% -52.4% 25% 12% -60.5%
≤30d 8 -47.3% -52.4% 25% 12% -60.5%
≤90d 8 -47.3% -52.4% 25% 12% -60.5%
all 37 -7.5% -16.3% 57% 54% -30.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 54% -30.5%
10% -24.3% 43% -37.2%
15% -31.6% 35% -43.3%
20% -38.3% 19% -48.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -56% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$526) neutral
Persistence
early +10% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$149 vs −$406 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

182d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,413
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses21 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage182d
Avg bet$392
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 22 $579 −$579 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 22 $227 −$227 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 22 $314 −$314 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 22 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 22 $234 +$293 +125%
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Martin Landaluce Jun 22 $379 −$18 -5%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $386 −$382 -99%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $148 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Dec 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Dec 27 $384 −$304 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Dec 27 $539 −$182 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Dec 27 $162 +$111 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Dec 27 $519 −$108 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Dec 23 $1,826 −$1,826 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Dec 23 $866 +$960 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Dec 23 $42 +$20 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Dec 23 $28 +$14 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Dec 22 $610 −$582 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Dec 22 $350 +$260 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Dec 22 $938 −$588 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Dec 22 $694 +$244 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Dec 22 $526 +$168 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Dec 22 $225 +$106 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 4PM ET Dec 22 $358 −$358 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Dec 22 $429 −$429 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Dec 22 $200 +$92 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Dec 22 $277 +$60 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Dec 22 $180 +$97 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Dec 22 $68 +$14 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Dec 22 $33 +$35 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Dec 22 $467 −$467 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Dec 22 $780 +$177 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Dec 22 $593 +$97 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Dec 22 $341 +$140 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Dec 22 $149 +$22 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Dec 22 $316 +$115 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Dec 22 $200 +$100 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $579 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $42 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 2h
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Martin Landaluce SELL Jan-Lennard Struff 40¢ $360 2h
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Martin Landaluce BUY Jan-Lennard Struff 41¢ $379 12h
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Taylor Fritz 67¢ $150 14h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul SELL Tommy Paul 68¢ $150 14h
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Taylor Fritz 67¢ $192 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 117 history records