Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:07:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d95…54ef crypto 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$1
crypto 19% +$1
sports 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -5.6% -14.6% 0% 0% -14.6%
≤30d 1 -5.6% -14.6% 0% 0% -14.6%
≤90d 1 -5.6% -14.6% 0% 0% -14.6%
all 1 -5.6% -14.6% 0% 0% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 0% -14.6%
10% -22.8% 0% -22.8%
15% -30.3% 0% -30.3%
20% -37.1% 0% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$2 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England leading at halftime? Yes 53¢ 56¢ $53 $56 +$3 (+6%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $18 $18 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+21%)
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ 56¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 20 $44 −$2 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 17¢ $19 13m
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 1h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 53¢ $54 1h
Egypt leading at halftime? SELL Yes 42¢ $41 4h
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $44 4h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $6 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.52 · official $85.77 (match) · 6 history records