Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:03:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9D 0x9d95…8e31 other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$90 (-16%) realized −$90 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate31%4W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$90
crypto 15% $0
world 7% −$2
politics 5% −$1
sports 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 5 -7.2% -16.0% 60% 0% -27.7%
all 13 -4.6% -13.7% 31% 0% -24.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 0% -24.4%
10% -22.0% 0% -31.6%
15% -29.5% 0% -38.2%
20% -36.4% 0% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$19 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$90
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses4 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage120d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 27 $125 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 08 $245 −$89 -36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 19? May 05 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on April 3? Apr 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on March 25? Apr 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 19? Mar 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 05 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Mar 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 01 $16 −$1 -7%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 28 $39 −$2 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $125 1h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $125 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $53 50d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes $142 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $21 71d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $103 81d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes $103 85d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on April 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $22 86d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on March 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $28 94d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 100d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $11 114d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes $11 114d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $9 114d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 115d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $25 115d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $25 116d
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes $6 117d
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes $6 117d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL Yes $7 118d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY Yes $7 118d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $15 118d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $38 119d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $16 119d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $39 120d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 31 history records