Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T16:27:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9D
0x9d93…36b6
world · 70 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$7 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$6 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses26 / 43
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)69 / 70
History coverage480d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 1 History 69 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$1
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 42¢ 55¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+29%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? No 72¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $41 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $36 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $13 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $37 +$4 +10%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $37 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $2 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $33 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $37 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $36 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $185 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $16 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $72 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $109 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 03 $33 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $37 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $39 −$2 -6%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $144 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $49 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $91 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $5 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 27 $35 +$1 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $34 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $1 $0 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $8 −$1 -16%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $39 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $48 +$3 +7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $36 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $21 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $33 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 14 $102 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $6 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 08 $29 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $182 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $29 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $3 $0 -7%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $29 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $66 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $39 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $59 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 18 $33 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $62 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $43 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 15 $29 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 14 $2 +$1 +37%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $29 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 49% +$5
other 23% $0
politics 14% +$1
sports 12% −$11
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $41 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $41 3h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $34 28h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $2 28h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $36 32h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $13 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $13 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $41 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $37 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $37 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $37 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 4d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $33 4d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $29 4d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $4 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $37 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $37 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 54¢ $33 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 54¢ $11 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 54¢ $4 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 54¢ $18 6d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $37 6d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $37 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $10 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)+15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.9% -8.7% 36% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 29 +68.8% +52.8% 41% 3% -9.2%
≤90d 68 +29.8% +17.5% 38% 3% -9.4%
all 69 +27.9% +15.7% 38% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.7% 3% -9.7%
10% +4.7% 3% -18.4%
15% -5.4% 3% -26.2%
20% -14.7% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.66 · official $0.00 (match) · 283 history records