Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:04:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9D
0x9d8d…b106
other · 7 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
−$52 -18%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$52 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$9
Realized−$52
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage162d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%
Chart Positions 2 History 5 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the US strike Somalia next? No 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 14? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 14? Feb 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US strike Somalia next? Feb 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Gian van Veen win the PDC World Darts Championship? Jan 04 $79 −$79 -100%
Nine-Darter at the PDC World Darts Championship? Jan 04 $185 +$35 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 96% −$48
sports 4% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 1h
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 14? BUY No 0¢ $1 119d
Will the US strike Somalia next? BUY No 1¢ $2 123d
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 156d
Nine-Darter at the PDC World Darts Championship? BUY No 84¢ $185 161d
Will Gian van Veen win the PDC World Darts Championship? BUY Yes 30¢ $79 161d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-78.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 5 -76.2% -78.5% 20% 20% -26.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -78.5% 20% -26.8%
10% -80.5% 0% -33.8%
15% -82.4% 0% -40.2%
20% -84.1% 0% -46.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.87 · official $8.89 (match) · 9 history records