Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:05:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
9D 0x9d8c…08ec other 1171 markets active 1h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$11 (+0%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate100%1164W / 5L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$6
sports 42% +$6
politics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
world 1% −$3
weather 1% $0
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 260 -0.2% -9.7% 100% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 1000 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 1% -9.4%
all 1169 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 1% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1164 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1169 / 1171
History coverage111d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1169 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
StarCraft II: Gerald vs Solar (BO3) - WardiTV Championship Group Stage 2 - Group B Solar 99¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Straszewska vs. Wawrzkiewicz: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Wolff vs. Broek: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Urbanova vs. Safta: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Bekeni vs. Daskalovic: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Meza vs. Bondioli: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Game 2: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will Peter Sundin Soulé advance from the CA-16 primary election? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Chris Wood: 2+ shots on target Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Sawashiro vs. Kim: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Chris Wood: 1+ shots on target Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Ben Waine: 2+ shots Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Criciúma EC 2 - 0 Ceará SC? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Salem Al Dawsari: 1+ shots Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Alexis Saelemaekers: 5+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Trezeguet: 1+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Alexis Saelemaekers: 4+ goals + assists Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Álex Grimaldo: 3+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Aymeric Laporte: 1+ goals Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Hannibal Mejbri: 4+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Elias Saad: 3+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Jackson Blake lead the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals in goals? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Aymen Dahmen: 5+ saves Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Championship" during UFC 250? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 3? Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Simon Adingra: 2+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Grêmio Novorizontino 2 - 1 Clube Náutico Capibaribe? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Grêmio Novorizontino 2 - 3 Clube Náutico Capibaribe? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Daizen Maeda: 3+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Jearl Margaritha: 2+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Frenkie de Jong: 3+ goals + assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Virgil van Dijk: 3+ goals + assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Athletic Club 0 - 1 Goiás EC? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Gervane Kastaneer: 4+ shots Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Keflavik IF vs. FH Hafnarfjordur: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $4 $0 +0%
Jamie Leweling: 1+ goals Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Stabaek IF 1 - 3 Egersunds IK? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Alessandro Circati: 2+ assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Kerem Aktürkoğlu: 4+ goals + assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Mo Touré: 2+ goals Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Jalen Brunson score 50+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Finals Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will Landry Shamet record the highest scoring game of the 2026 NBA Fin Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Craig Gordon: 3+ saves Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Straszewska vs. Wawrzkiewicz: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 47m
StarCraft II: Gerald vs Solar (BO3) - WardiTV Championship Group Stage BUY Solar 99¢ $5 1h
Wolff vs. Broek: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 4h
Urbanova vs. Safta: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 5h
Bekeni vs. Daskalovic: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 100¢ $4 5h
Meza vs. Bondioli: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 6h
Game 2: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 9h
Chris Wood: 2+ shots on target BUY Yes 99¢ $5 11h
Will Peter Sundin Soulé advance from the CA-16 primary election? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 11h
Sawashiro vs. Kim: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 100¢ $4 12h
Chris Wood: 1+ shots on target BUY Yes 100¢ $5 12h
Ben Waine: 2+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 14h
Salem Al Dawsari: 1+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $5 15h
Exact Score: Criciúma EC 2 - 0 Ceará SC? BUY No 100¢ $5 15h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 100¢ $5 17h
Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 18h
Alexis Saelemaekers: 5+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 20h
Trezeguet: 1+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 20h
Alexis Saelemaekers: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 20h
Álex Grimaldo: 3+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 23h
Aymeric Laporte: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 24h
Hannibal Mejbri: 4+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 35h
Elias Saad: 3+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 35h
Aymen Dahmen: 5+ saves BUY No 100¢ $5 38h
Will Jackson Blake lead the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals in goals? BUY No 100¢ $5 39h
Will the announcers say "Championship" during UFC 250? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 39h
Simon Adingra: 2+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 40h
Exact Score: Grêmio Novorizontino 2 - 3 Clube Náutico Capibaribe? BUY No 100¢ $5 41h
Exact Score: Grêmio Novorizontino 2 - 1 Clube Náutico Capibaribe? BUY No 100¢ $5 41h
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 3? BUY Under 99¢ $1 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.88 · official $4.88 (match) · 2668 history records