Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:07:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
9D 0x9d8b…1287 other 104 markets active 0h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$51 (-0%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate12%12W / 90L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$237per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$200now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$223
politics 16% −$4
sports 7% −$32
economics 4% −$1
culture 4% −$1
world 2% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +14.9% +4.0% 14% 14% -9.3%
≤30d 19 +5.4% -4.6% 11% 5% -9.4%
≤90d 97 -1.2% -10.6% 12% 9% -10.5%
all 102 -1.2% -10.6% 12% 9% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 9% -10.5%
10% -19.1% 9% -19.1%
15% -26.9% 8% -26.9%
20% -34.1% 8% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$200
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses12 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)102 / 104
History coverage96d
Avg bet$237
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $131 $131 +$0 (+0%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $68 $69 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 23 $39 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $1,177 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $47 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$6 +105%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $29 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $251 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $46 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $44 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $33 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $33 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $218 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $40 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $48 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $261 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 02 $76 $0 +0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $48 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $40 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 30 $256 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $44 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $45 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 18 $425 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 17 $222 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $452 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $222 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $436 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 14 $435 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 13 $439 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $422 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $212 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 10 $211 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $442 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $827 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $222 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $443 −$1 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 05 $217 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $226 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $854 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 02 $226 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $437 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? May 01 $27 $0 +1%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $627 −$207 -33%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $433 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 28 $214 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $212 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $666 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 19 $220 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $224 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $220 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $454 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 16 $213 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $39 3m
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $39 1h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 22h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 26h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $68 3d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $47 3d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $47 4d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 5d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 5d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $39 5d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $39 5d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $46 6d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $46 6d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $131 7d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $44 7d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $44 7d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $33 12d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 12d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 13d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 13d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $27 17d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 17d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $40 18d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $40 19d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $48 19d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $48 19d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $42 21d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $43 21d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $48 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $199.78 · official $199.78 (match) · 317 history records