Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:30:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d8a…5201 sports 497 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$16,118 (-8%) realized −$30,243 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate27%132W / 362L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$386per market
Trades / day108.3pace
Fees−$3,809est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$770now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,170
7 days+$3,572
14 days+$1,634
30 days−$30,243
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$27,662
other 1% −$1,490
world 1% −$1,124
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +50.3% +36.0% 48% 48% +32.4%
≤30d 494 -13.6% -21.9% 27% 26% -24.5%
≤90d 494 -13.6% -21.9% 27% 26% -24.5%
all 494 -13.6% -21.9% 27% 26% -24.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover108.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.9% 26% -24.5%
10% ← realistic here -29.3% 26% -31.7%
15% -36.2% 26% -38.3%
20% -42.4% 25% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$510) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$659 vs −$324 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$770
Realized−$30,243
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses132 / 362
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$3,809
Open positions3
Markets (closed)494 / 497
History coverage29d
Avg bet$386
Trades / day108.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 494 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Over 32¢ 28¢ $384 $342 −$42 (-11%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Over 56¢ 56¢ $311 $308 −$3 (-1%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Under 14¢ 16¢ $108 $120 +$12 (+11%)
Roland Garros WTA: Diane Parry vs Amanda Anisimova Amanda Anisimova 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Prostejov: Alex Molcan vs Vitaliy Sachko Vitaliy Sachko 21¢ 0¢ $353 $0 −$353 (-100%)
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 HANJIN BRION 9¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul Tommy Paul 50¢ 0¢ $1,250 $0 −$1,250 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Over 43¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Flavio Cobolli 21¢ 0¢ $74 $0 −$74 (-100%)
Francisco Cerundolo vs. Zachary Svajda: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Under 3.5 0¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Under 1¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs Sharks 28¢ 0¢ $588 $0 −$588 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Spurs 48¢ 0¢ $56 $0 −$56 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Marta Kostyuk 54¢ 0¢ $351 $0 −$351 (-100%)
Set 1 Winner: Mensik vs Zverev Mensik 40¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5 Over 20¢ 0¢ $202 $0 −$202 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA (Doubles): Kalinina/Yastremska vs Danilina/Krunic Kalinina/Yastremska 33¢ 0¢ $412 $0 −$412 (-100%)
Set Handicap: Kostyuk (-1.5) vs Andreeva (+1.5) Kostyuk 35¢ 0¢ $94 $0 −$94 (-100%)
Dota 2: Aurora vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage OG 29¢ 0¢ $217 $0 −$217 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage PARIVISION 2¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Set Handicap: Cerundolo (-1.5) vs Svajda (+1.5) Cerundolo 0¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar Alex Michelsen 16¢ 0¢ $350 $0 −$350 (-100%)
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Under 24¢ 0¢ $72 $0 −$72 (-100%)
Set Handicap: Ruud (-2.5) vs Paul (+2.5) Ruud 0¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs 9z 51¢ 0¢ $382 $0 −$382 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $239 +$261 +109%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $346 +$254 +73%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $576 +$724 +126%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $145 +$355 +245%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $835 +$745 +89%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $641 +$568 +89%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $244 −$240 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $251 −$250 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $169 +$434 +257%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $522 −$120 -23%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $237 −$232 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1,098 −$72 -7%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $128 +$122 +95%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $124 −$121 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $123 −$120 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $572 +$342 +60%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $475 +$150 +32%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $235 +$216 +92%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $327 −$20 -6%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $1,040 +$400 +38%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $430 +$326 +76%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $175 −$175 -100%
Libema Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Magda Linette Jun 12 $163 +$336 +206%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $140 −$140 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $75 −$74 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $188 −$184 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 06 $49 −$49 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 06 $57 −$56 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 110.5 Jun 06 $274 −$274 -100%
1H Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 05 $189 −$189 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $484 +$32 +7%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $82 +$118 +144%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $144 +$184 +127%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $233 −$86 -37%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $392 +$289 +74%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $82 −$82 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $170 −$168 -99%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $19 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Set 1 Winner: Mensik vs Zverev Jun 05 $80 −$80 -100%
Prostejov: Alex Molcan vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 05 $359 −$353 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $254 −$250 -98%
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Granollers/Zeballos vs Bolelli/Vavassori Jun 05 $418 −$414 -99%
Game Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 05 $160 −$5 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 14¢ $4 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 14¢ $29 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 14¢ $7 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 14¢ $4 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 14¢ $2 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 14¢ $64 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $8 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $384 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 56¢ $315 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $239 4h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 57¢ $346 6h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 44¢ $246 6h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 1¢ $6 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 6¢ $51 7h
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur SELL Kamil Majchrzak 100¢ $999 7h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $749 7h
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur SELL Kamil Majchrzak 69¢ $30 8h
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur SELL Kamil Majchrzak 69¢ $100 8h
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur SELL Kamil Majchrzak 69¢ $2 8h
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur SELL Kamil Majchrzak 69¢ $407 8h
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur SELL Kamil Majchrzak 69¢ $1 8h
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur SELL Kamil Majchrzak 69¢ $8 8h
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur SELL Kamil Majchrzak 69¢ $32 8h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Over 29¢ $71 9h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Over 29¢ $3 9h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 62¢ $460 9h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Over 29¢ $1 9h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 1¢ $1 9h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 1¢ $0 9h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 1¢ $1 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $770.03 · official $770.15 (match) · 3500 history records