Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:04:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9D
0x9d88…4a8b
crypto · 219 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$245 -17%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$241 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$15
Realized−$241
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses106 / 108
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)214 / 219
History coverage101d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 5 History 214 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$0
14 days−$21
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 36¢ 36¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 28¢ 33¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+19%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-37%)
BNP Paribas Open: Ben Shelton vs Learner Tien Ben Shelton 59¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Avalanche vs. Jets Avalanche 63¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Flavio Cobolli 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Yes 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Hamburg European Open: Alex de Minaur vs Tommy Paul Alex de Minaur 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Canadiens vs. Kings Kings 53¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Rangers vs. Wild Wild 66¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 −$3 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $4 +$6 +131%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $5 −$3 -51%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $6 +$4 +78%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 04 $4 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 04 $3 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 04 $4 +$1 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 04 $4 +$1 +29%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $3 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 02 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 02 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 02 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 02 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 02 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 02 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 02 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 02 $1 +$4 +400%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 02 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 02 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 02 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 02 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 02 $4 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 02 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 02 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 30 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 30 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 30 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 30 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 30 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 30 $4 +$1 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 51% −$197
crypto 42% −$36
other 8% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 3h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 3h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $4 3h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $4 5h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 37h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 37h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 99¢ $5 38h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 30¢ $2 38h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 62¢ $3 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 3d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 3d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 41¢ $2 5d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $0 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $0 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -19.4% -27.1% 43% 29% -9.4%
≤30d 121 -19.9% -27.5% 53% 42% -17.2%
≤90d 170 -16.7% -24.7% 51% 44% -15.2%
all 214 -19.6% -27.3% 50% 43% -25.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.3% 43% -25.4%
10% -34.2% 36% -32.5%
15% -40.6% 29% -39.0%
20% -46.4% 22% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.81 · official $14.81 (match) · 427 history records