Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:23:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9D
0x9d84…1344
other · 41 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$180,852 +55%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$14,059 · open +$90,384
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$782,751
Realized−$14,059
Unrealized+$90,384
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses14 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Open positions450
Markets (closed)59 / 41
Avg bet$8,075
Trades / day92.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 450 History 59 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$138,602
7 days−$138,602
14 days−$138,602
30 days−$80,413
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 67¢ 82¢ $151,659 $185,027 +$33,367 (+22%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 5¢ 72¢ $4,573 $66,593 +$62,020 (+1356%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 91¢ 98¢ $40,270 $43,523 +$3,253 (+8%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 11¢ 77¢ $5,624 $39,066 +$33,442 (+595%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $30,048 $25,995 −$4,053 (-13%)
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 58¢ 100¢ $11,665 $19,994 +$8,329 (+71%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 20¢ 16¢ $23,508 $17,792 −$5,716 (-24%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No 42¢ 52¢ $13,726 $16,872 +$3,146 (+23%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $11,372 $15,871 +$4,499 (+40%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 37¢ 12¢ $45,790 $15,504 −$30,286 (-66%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027? No 39¢ 95¢ $6,045 $14,586 +$8,541 (+141%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 10¢ 16¢ $8,784 $14,504 +$5,720 (+65%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 18¢ 15¢ $17,403 $14,325 −$3,077 (-18%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 69¢ 81¢ $11,990 $14,155 +$2,165 (+18%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 35¢ 42¢ $11,269 $13,470 +$2,201 (+20%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 37¢ 48¢ $8,217 $10,549 +$2,332 (+28%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 81¢ 90¢ $7,586 $8,476 +$890 (+12%)
No one announced as next James Bond? Yes 37¢ 87¢ $3,273 $7,713 +$4,440 (+136%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 86¢ 91¢ $6,566 $6,979 +$413 (+6%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $6,600 $6,638 +$38 (+1%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No 67¢ 53¢ $8,103 $6,453 −$1,649 (-20%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 23¢ $185 $5,812 +$5,627 (+3035%)
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4,120 $5,548 +$1,429 (+35%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 9¢ $2,144 $5,442 +$3,298 (+154%)
Stripe IPO before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $3,462 $3,737 +$275 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? Jun 12 $0 +$3,391 +708030%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $0 +$97 +142271%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? Jun 12 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Ernest Jones win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will The Secret Agent win Best Casting at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 12 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Abracadabra (Lady Gaga) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual G Jun 12 $32 +$1,184 +3756%
Will Jalen Royals be the 2025-2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Travis Hunter be the 2025-2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Jun 12 $34 −$31 -90%
Will Jalen Hurts win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? Jun 12 $0 +$168 +2365930%
Will Luther (Kendrick Lamar and SZA) win Song of the Year at the 68th Jun 12 $54 +$1,718 +3194%
Will Khalil Mobasher Kashani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Am I Okay? (Megan Moroney) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annua Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by March 31, 2026? Jun 12 $162 −$17 -10%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Aw Jun 12 $48 +$84 +176%
Will Jahdae Barron be the 2025-2026 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will T.J. Watt win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? Jun 12 $0 +$359 +4983114%
Odds of Khamenei out by February over 50% in January? Jun 12 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Devin Booker win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Jonathan Taylor win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Kristi Noem be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? Jun 12 $705 −$705 -100%
Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair? Jun 12 $32,998 −$33,073 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Jun 12 $5,054 −$37,242 -737%
Will Myles Garrett win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
US downs another Iranian drone by February 28? Jun 12 $168 −$168 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026? Jun 12 $1,655 −$1,655 -100%
Will Geno Smith win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? Jun 12 $0 +$361 +5011044%
Will John Ratcliffe be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 202 Jun 12 $806 −$806 -100%
Will Dylan Sampson be the 2025-2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Mohammad-Reza Modarresi Yazdi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Azizam (Ed Sheeran) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMM Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Jun 12 $15,199 −$9,326 -61%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Trump try to Fire Powell by January 31? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? Jun 12 $767 −$767 -100%
Will Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Jamieson Greer be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 202 Jun 12 $806 −$806 -100%
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? Jun 12 $957 −$20,554 -2148%
Will TreVeyon Henderson win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Navid Shomali be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Jun 12 $35,306 −$34,611 -98%
Will France be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 12 $380 −$259 -68%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31? Jun 12 $5,824 −$4,977 -86%
Will Witkoff meet with Iranian officials by February 28? Jun 12 $73 −$73 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 2, 2026? Jun 12 $392 −$392 -100%
Will Cirkut win Producer of the Year, Non-Classical at the 68th annual Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 24 $16,864 −$133 -1%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 20 $21,809 −$10,011 -46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 74% +$99,584
world 14% +$64,619
economics 6% +$52,807
politics 4% +$8,065
tech 1% −$10,149
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $14 32m
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $33 46m
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 49m
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 52m
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $12 55m
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $221 57m
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $38 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $179 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $517 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $33 2h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 2h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 2h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 2h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 2h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 2h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 2h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 2h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 2h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 2h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 2h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+188.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +177.9% +151.4% 15% 15% -91.5%
≤30d 54 +229.3% +198.0% 22% 20% -30.7%
≤90d 59 +218.5% +188.2% 24% 22% -5.4%
all 59 +218.5% +188.2% 24% 22% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover92.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +188.2% 22% -5.4%
10% +160.6% 22% -14.5%
15% ← realistic here +135.4% 20% -22.7%
20% +112.4% 19% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $782,751.43 · official $782,535.18 (match) · 3500 history records