Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:04:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d83…8869 other 228 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$61 (-0%) realized −$61 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 215L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$208per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$13
14 days−$24
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$37
sports 21% −$17
politics 9% −$3
economics 6% −$4
culture 5% −$5
crypto 5% −$3
world 5% −$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 72 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 181 -0.1% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
all 227 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 215
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)227 / 228
History coverage127d
Avg bet$208
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 227 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 99¢ 99¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $709 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $536 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 16 $435 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $263 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $190 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $253 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $192 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $319 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $59 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $247 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $322 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $59 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $440 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $529 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $388 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $453 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $162 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $216 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $200 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $378 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $428 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $61 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $475 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $218 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $567 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $537 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $215 $0 +0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $62 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $295 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $417 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $340 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $430 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $221 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $409 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $351 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $240 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $367 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $276 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $162 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $506 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $229 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $304 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $281 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 04 $133 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $635 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $261 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $226 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $605 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $294 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 01 $161 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $58 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $58 2h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 10h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 12h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $58 23h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $58 24h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 26h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 27h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $58 29h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $58 31h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 32h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 34h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $58 35h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $59 37h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $59 44h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $59 46h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 3d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $59 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $59 3d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $59 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.76 · official $57.76 (match) · 1245 history records