Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:49:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d83…349b crypto 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$42 (+9%) realized −$1 · open +$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate38%6W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$67
7 days−$46
14 days−$38
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$65
sports 22% +$47
crypto 12% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -7.1% -15.9% 38% 31% -22.3%
≤30d 16 -8.9% -17.6% 38% 31% -19.5%
≤90d 16 -8.9% -17.6% 38% 31% -19.5%
all 16 -8.9% -17.6% 38% 31% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 31% -19.5%
10% -25.5% 31% -27.2%
15% -32.7% 31% -34.2%
20% -39.3% 25% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$11 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$43
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses6 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 19
History coverage8d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 64¢ 100¢ $76 $119 +$43 (+57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $155 −$78 -51%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $15 +$9 +62%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -73%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -91%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 +$6 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 09 $7 +$33 +450%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 09 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 07 $10 +$16 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 64¢ $76 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 35¢ $76 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $100 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 79¢ $34 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 2h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 25h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 61¢ $15 25h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 27h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 37h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 37h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 37h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 24¢ $15 45h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 19¢ $10 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $15 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.73 · official $118.73 (match) · 40 history records