Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:15:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

9D 0x9d83…458e other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$15 (-1%) realized −$23 · open +$8

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip

Net edge-60%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$301per market

Trades / day6.0pace

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$255now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-58.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-54.5%	-58.8%	0%	0%	-41.0%
≤30d	2	-54.5%	-58.8%	0%	0%	-41.0%
≤90d	2	-54.5%	-58.8%	0%	0%	-41.0%
all	2	-54.5%	-58.8%	0%	0%	-41.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-58.8%	0%	-41.0%
10%	-62.8%	0%	-46.6%
15%	-66.4%	0%	-51.8%
20%	-69.7%	0%	-56.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -35% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -54% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$123 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$255

Realized−$23

Unrealized+$8

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 2

Open positions2

Markets (closed)2 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$301

Trades / day6.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	51¢	52¢	$243	$250	+$7 (+3%)
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?	Yes	19¢	22¢	$4	$5	+$1 (+18%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 23	$506	−$45	-9%
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$203	−$200	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	19¢	$4	40m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	56¢	$461	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	58¢	$203	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	52¢	$244	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	51¢	$493	24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	60¢	$506	24h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $254.77 · official $254.88 (match) · 6 history records