Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:16:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d82…2ec8 other 30 markets active 1d ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$80 (-16%) realized −$62 · open −$18
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%7W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$22
14 days−$75
30 days−$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$69
other 11% −$28
sports 6% +$7
politics 2% $0
economics 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-30.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -25.2% -32.3% 40% 40% -69.6%
≤30d 17 -22.7% -30.0% 41% 41% -25.4%
≤90d 17 -22.7% -30.0% 41% 41% -25.4%
all 17 -22.7% -30.0% 41% 41% -25.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.0% 41% -25.4%
10% -36.7% 41% -32.5%
15% -42.8% 35% -39.0%
20% -48.4% 35% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$20 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$62
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses7 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions13
Markets (closed)17 / 30
History coverage10d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 28¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-5%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? Yes $20 $6 −$14 (-70%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 46¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+14%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-18%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-18%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No $5 $1 −$4 (-72%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +65%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 10 $1 +$1 +109%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $4 −$4 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Aoi Ito Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $10 +$20 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 05 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 05 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 05 $126 +$42 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 05 $52 +$38 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 05 $26 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 05 $27 −$27 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes $1 34h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $1 34h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $2 34h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $15 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 43h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $1 44h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 44h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 2d
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Kamil Majchrzak 47¢ $1 7d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 67¢ $4 7d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 46¢ $5 7d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Milwaukee Brewers $5 7d
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 9d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 9d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 9d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY Yes $21 9d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No $5 9d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Aoi Ito BUY Aoi Ito 19¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $26 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $102 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $67 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $30 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $60 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.21 · official $54.21 (match) · 58 history records