Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:14:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
9D 0x9d81…ce24 sports 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 711d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$70 (+1%) realized +$644 · open −$574
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate68%28W / 13L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$603now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$102
7 days+$119
14 days+$119
30 days+$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$457
sports 3% −$49
crypto 0% $0
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +1.6% -8.1% 100% 0% -7.3%
≤30d 14 +1.6% -8.1% 100% 0% -7.3%
≤90d 17 +1.4% -8.3% 94% 12% -7.4%
all 41 -16.2% -24.2% 68% 29% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 29% -8.3%
10% -31.4% 29% -17.1%
15% -38.1% 27% -25.1%
20% -44.1% 10% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

711d coverage
Net worth$603
Realized+$644
Unrealized−$574
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses28 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)41 / 43
History coverage711d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Amine Gouiri: 3+ goals No 99¢ 51¢ $1,175 $600 −$575 (-49%)
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 39¢ 62¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Marcus Rashford: 4+ goals + assists Jun 28 $1,153 +$35 +3%
Pedri: 4+ goals + assists Jun 27 $1,109 +$57 +5%
Chérif Ndiaye: 3+ goals Jun 26 $1,109 +$11 +1%
Ritsu Dōan: 4+ goals + assists Jun 26 $128 +$1 +1%
Jamie Leweling: 3+ goals Jun 25 $128 +$1 +1%
Lee Donggyeong: 3+ goals Jun 25 $128 +$1 +1%
Achraf Hakimi: 3+ goals Jun 25 $128 +$1 +1%
Christian Fassnacht: 3+ goals Jun 24 $128 +$1 +1%
James Rodríguez: 3+ goals Jun 24 $128 +$1 +1%
Ivan Perišić: 3+ goals Jun 24 $128 +$1 +1%
Pedro Neto: 3+ goals Jun 23 $128 +$1 +1%
Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals Jun 23 $127 +$4 +3%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Austria? Jun 22 $126 +$2 +2%
Víctor Muñoz: 4+ goals + assists Jun 21 $125 +$1 +1%
Pelicans vs. Kings Apr 03 $15 −$15 -99%
Islanders vs. Sabres Apr 03 $7 +$4 +64%
Magic vs. Cavaliers Mar 30 $8 +$3 +37%
Rangers vs. Wild Mar 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canucks Mar 13 $4 +$2 +35%
Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Mar 04 $3 +$2 +52%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Feb 05 $8 −$8 -100%
Bruins vs. Lightning Feb 05 $7 +$3 +49%
Flyers vs. Avalanche Jan 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Hornets vs. Warriors Jan 23 $9 +$4 +43%
Blue Jackets vs. Avalanche Jan 16 $7 +$3 +37%
Flyers vs. Oilers Jan 03 $7 −$7 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Hawks Dec 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Dec 30 $9 +$4 +45%
Kraken vs. Ducks Dec 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Canucks vs. Islanders Dec 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Raptors vs. Heat Dec 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Kings vs. Pacers Dec 15 $6 +$4 +61%
Pelicans vs. Nets Dec 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pacers Dec 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Wizards vs. Pacers Dec 01 $8 +$4 +45%
Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Pacers vs. Suns Nov 22 $7 +$3 +43%
Bitcoin above $58,000 on July 19? Nov 12 $3 $0 +1%
Ethereum above $3,100 on July 19? Nov 12 $3 $0 +1%
Nic Carter vs. Coty Kuhn: Who will win? Nov 12 $2 +$2 +100%
Will Biden say "Ear" during Lester Holt interview? Jul 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Amine Gouiri: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,175 1h
Marcus Rashford: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 97¢ $1,153 14h
Pedri: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 95¢ $1,109 28h
Chérif Ndiaye: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,109 39h
Ritsu Dōan: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 99¢ $128 2d
Jamie Leweling: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $128 2d
Lee Donggyeong: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $128 3d
Achraf Hakimi: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $128 3d
Christian Fassnacht: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $128 3d
James Rodríguez: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $128 4d
Ivan Perišić: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $128 4d
Pedro Neto: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $128 4d
Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals BUY No 97¢ $127 5d
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Austria? BUY No 98¢ $126 5d
Víctor Muñoz: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 99¢ $125 6d
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 39¢ $2 82d
Pelicans vs. Kings BUY Pelicans 65¢ $15 85d
Islanders vs. Sabres BUY Sabres 61¢ $7 89d
Magic vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 73¢ $8 96d
Rangers vs. Wild BUY Wild 66¢ $6 106d
Hurricanes vs. Canucks BUY Hurricanes 74¢ $4 115d
Maple Leafs vs. Lightning BUY Lightning 66¢ $3 136d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY JD Gaming 72¢ $8 142d
Bruins vs. Lightning BUY Lightning 67¢ $7 146d
Flyers vs. Avalanche BUY Avalanche 72¢ $13 155d
Hornets vs. Warriors BUY Warriors 70¢ $9 162d
Blue Jackets vs. Avalanche BUY Avalanche 73¢ $7 168d
Flyers vs. Oilers BUY Oilers 61¢ $7 175d
Timberwolves vs. Hawks BUY Timberwolves 65¢ $10 179d
Knicks vs. Hawks BUY Knicks 69¢ $9 182d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $603.06 · official $603.18 (match) · 72 history records