Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:30:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
9D 0x9d7e…3b97 sports 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$491 (+18%) realized +$491 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate65%35W / 19L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$197now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$365
7 days+$560
14 days+$596
30 days+$596
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$257
other 43% +$298
crypto 3% +$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)+1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +13.8% +3.0% 66% 66% +16.4%
≤30d 54 +12.0% +1.4% 65% 65% +14.8%
≤90d 54 +12.0% +1.4% 65% 65% +14.8%
all 54 +12.0% +1.4% 65% 65% +14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.4% 65% +14.8%
10% -8.3% 61% +3.9%
15% -17.2% 57% -6.2%
20% -25.3% 44% -15.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$26 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.19 per $1 lost it wins $2.19
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$197
Realized+$491
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses35 / 19
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions4
Markets (closed)54 / 74
History coverage11d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 1.5 Over 79¢ 78¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Yes 59¢ 60¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+1%)
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 44¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 55¢ $27 $28 +$1 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $304 +$213 +70%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $52 +$30 +59%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $82 −$81 -98%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $152 +$83 +54%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $101 +$77 +76%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $18 +$8 +42%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $23 +$10 +44%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $15 −$15 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $41 −$40 -99%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $101 +$80 +79%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $71 +$23 +32%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $20 +$12 +60%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $20 +$17 +83%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $51 +$60 +119%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $18 −$18 -99%
Croatia leading at halftime? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -99%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $202 −$200 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $82 +$51 +62%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $59 +$45 +76%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $121 +$19 +16%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $20 +$50 +244%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $142 +$71 +50%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 22 $9 +$5 +50%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $25 +$17 +67%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $20 +$30 +147%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $5 +$1 +12%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $10 +$15 +152%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $15 +$6 +38%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $5 +$3 +57%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $82 +$51 +62%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $15 +$12 +76%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $74 +$42 +56%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 +$6 +55%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 +$3 +67%
Türkiye to score first vs. Paraguay? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners AND United States Jun 19 $10 +$6 +55%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $10 +$3 +32%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 AND Will Switz Jun 18 $5 +$8 +162%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $8 +$3 +40%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $31 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $27 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $81 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $61 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $304 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $82 21h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 47¢ $82 22h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $234 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 62¢ $52 36h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $152 36h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $15 44h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 44h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $101 44h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $182 44h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 70¢ $18 46h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 46h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 69¢ $23 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $101 2d
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $71 2d
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 62¢ $20 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $20 3d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $18 3d
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $15 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY 45¢ $51 3d
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $31 3d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $202 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 61¢ $82 4d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $103 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $140 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? A BUY 30¢ $82 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $197.45 · official $197.45 (match) · 111 history records