Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:07:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9D
0x9d7c…821d
crypto · 22 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$41 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$31 · open −$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$46
Realized−$31
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses7 / 9
Open positions6
Markets (closed)16 / 22
History coverage1d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day44.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 6 History 16 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$31
14 days−$31
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? No 77¢ 74¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? No 73¢ 70¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 18, 2026? No 68¢ 62¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 61¢ 53¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2? No 68¢ 32¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-53%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 21, 2026? No 66¢ 55¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $53 −$20 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $36 +$21 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $79 −$6 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$10 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$22 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 85% −$31
world 9% −$3
other 5% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $27 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $32 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $7 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $46 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $40 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $26 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $34 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $26 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 53m
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 54m
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 BUY No 68¢ $10 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 66¢ $5 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 68¢ $10 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 77¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-34.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -28.0% -34.9% 44% 44% -18.5%
≤30d 16 -28.0% -34.9% 44% 44% -18.5%
≤90d 16 -28.0% -34.9% 44% 44% -18.5%
all 16 -28.0% -34.9% 44% 44% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover44.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.9% 44% -18.5%
10% ← realistic here -41.1% 25% -26.3%
15% -46.8% 25% -33.4%
20% -52.0% 19% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.78 · official $45.78 (match) · 59 history records