Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:26:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
9D 0x9d79…823a other 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$153 (-3%) realized −$140 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%8W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$313per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$512now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$297
7 days+$152
14 days+$126
30 days+$126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$150
crypto 4% −$33
sports 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +59.4% +44.2% 71% 71% -5.8%
≤30d 12 +30.8% +18.3% 67% 67% -6.5%
≤90d 12 +30.8% +18.3% 67% 67% -6.5%
all 12 +30.8% +18.3% 67% 67% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.3% 67% -6.5%
10% +7.0% 67% -15.5%
15% -3.3% 58% -23.7%
20% -12.8% 58% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +48% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$230 vs −$427 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$512
Realized−$140
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses8 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage10d
Avg bet$313
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $500 $497 −$3 (-1%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $25 $16 −$9 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $102 +$297 +291%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1,652 −$1,629 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $856 +$798 +93%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $555 +$302 +54%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $354 +$184 +52%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $163 +$204 +125%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $13 +$7 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$35 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 19 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$8 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $504 10m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $400 12m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $1,652 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $856 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $857 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $555 6d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $538 6d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $354 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $86 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $13 9d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 9d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $61 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $33 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 10d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $26 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $512.25 · official $512.25 (match) · 34 history records