Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:53:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d77…cf31 world 305 markets active 1d ago coverage 69d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 69d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,352 (-14%) realized −$4,137 · open −$215
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate17%50W / 248L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day49.3pace
Fees−$80est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$103
7 days−$303
14 days−$1,154
30 days−$2,097
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% −$3,351
sports 6% +$131
economics 4% −$227
tech 3% −$198
politics 3% −$241
other 2% −$267
finance 2% −$61
crypto 0% −$13
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -34.2% -40.4% 14% 5% -19.6%
≤30d 175 -28.4% -35.2% 13% 11% -19.6%
≤90d 298 -16.4% -24.3% 17% 14% -22.2%
all 298 -16.4% -24.3% 17% 14% -22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.3% 14% -22.2%
10% ← realistic here -31.6% 11% -29.7%
15% -38.2% 10% -36.5%
20% -44.3% 8% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$26 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$4,137
Unrealized−$215
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses50 / 248
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$80
Open positions8
Markets (closed)298 / 305
History coverage69d ⚠
Avg bet$100
Trades / day49.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 298 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 7¢ $16 $8 −$8 (-50%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-19%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $210 $5 −$205 (-97%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-17%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-57%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+7%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland before 2027? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $733 +$184 +25%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $29 −$4 -14%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $321 −$76 -24%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 16 $31 −$3 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 16 $358 +$15 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 16 $23 −$11 -46%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $365 −$139 -38%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $60 −$1 -1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $10 −$9 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $11 −$2 -21%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 15 $96 −$39 -41%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $26 −$11 -42%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $143 −$122 -85%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $84 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $0 $0 -4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 13 $110 −$5 -4%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? Jun 12 $13 −$2 -14%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 12 $132 −$51 -39%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 12 $154 −$13 -8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $21 −$19 -92%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 Jun 11 $7 +$68 +970%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 196.5 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $16 +$5 +32%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 Jun 11 $7 −$7 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 204.5 Jun 11 $11 −$11 -97%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $88 −$10 -11%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $5 +$2 +46%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 205.5 Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 98.5 Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 101.5 Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 09 $135 −$52 -39%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 09 $44 −$40 -91%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 09 $139 −$45 -32%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 09 $352 −$70 -20%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 09 $1,167 −$279 -24%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 09 $443 −$179 -40%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 09 $191 −$121 -63%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5 Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 224.5 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5 −$1 -29%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 Jun 09 $4 −$4 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $9 28h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $9 28h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $2 28h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 28h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $5 28h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 46h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 46h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $24 46h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 46h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $30 47h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 47h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 47h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 47h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $10 47h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $4 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? SELL Yes 2¢ $9 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $9 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? SELL Yes 2¢ $9 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $18 2d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $2 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? SELL Yes 2¢ $10 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY Yes 3¢ $12 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $12 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $14 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $18 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.16 · official $25.11 (match) · 3500 history records