Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:10:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9D
0x9d73…216b
world · 377 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$77,827 -17%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$36,830 · open −$4,640
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$188,015
Realized+$36,830
Unrealized−$4,640
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses129 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions274
Markets (closed)179 / 377
History coverage20d
Avg bet$1,242
Trades / day160.9
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 274 History 179 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,622
7 days−$9,754
14 days+$23,439
30 days+$36,830
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 81¢ 84¢ $13,097 $13,727 +$630 (+5%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 93¢ 97¢ $11,407 $11,980 +$573 (+5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 80¢ 85¢ $8,350 $8,899 +$549 (+7%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 72¢ 82¢ $7,618 $8,747 +$1,129 (+15%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? No 94¢ 98¢ $8,178 $8,526 +$348 (+4%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? No 89¢ 93¢ $6,140 $6,423 +$283 (+5%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 71¢ 80¢ $4,425 $5,023 +$598 (+14%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 82¢ 80¢ $5,161 $5,012 −$149 (-3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 62¢ $3,919 $4,942 +$1,023 (+26%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No 67¢ 66¢ $4,819 $4,788 −$31 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 38¢ 56¢ $2,986 $4,428 +$1,442 (+48%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes 45¢ 55¢ $3,372 $4,127 +$755 (+22%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? No 97¢ 98¢ $3,627 $3,681 +$54 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? No 88¢ 83¢ $3,820 $3,597 −$223 (-6%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 91¢ 76¢ $4,208 $3,528 −$680 (-16%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? No 92¢ 94¢ $3,094 $3,129 +$36 (+1%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 89¢ 98¢ $2,764 $3,043 +$279 (+10%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No 81¢ 86¢ $2,507 $2,662 +$155 (+6%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 69¢ 80¢ $2,132 $2,500 +$369 (+17%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 94¢ 98¢ $2,350 $2,459 +$109 (+5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 80¢ 48¢ $4,067 $2,457 −$1,610 (-40%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 87¢ 96¢ $2,165 $2,399 +$234 (+11%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $2,315 $2,348 +$34 (+1%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 76¢ 94¢ $1,714 $2,097 +$384 (+22%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 44¢ 36¢ $2,326 $1,920 −$405 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 13 $5,917 −$180 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $1,365 +$52 +4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $98 +$102 +104%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 13 $959 −$959 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $1,672 −$732 -44%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $54 −$54 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da Jun 12 $271 +$3 +1%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on Jun 12 $151 +$7 +5%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on Jun 12 $94 +$6 +7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $89 +$1 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $567 +$33 +6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $93 +$7 +7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $397 +$3 +1%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? Jun 12 $44 +$4 +10%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 12? Jun 12 $66 +$4 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 12? Jun 12 $49 +$1 +3%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 12 $846 +$36 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $140 +$352 +251%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 12 $620 +$50 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 12 $60 −$22 -37%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $380 −$12 -3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 12 $2,106 −$779 -37%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 12 $718 +$236 +33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 15? Jun 12 $91 +$7 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 11? Jun 12 $21 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $2,101 −$20 -1%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $91 +$9 +10%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $66 +$34 +52%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $14 +$3 +22%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $466 +$194 +42%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $1,212 −$1,212 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $3,240 −$3,240 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $3,656 −$3,034 -83%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $149 +$71 +48%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 9? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 12 $170 −$170 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 12 $125 −$125 -100%
Will Trump announce Devin Nunes as the next Director of National Intel Jun 12 $4 +$11 +253%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $92 +$8 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 10? Jun 12 $188 +$12 +6%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 11 $1,680 +$120 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $1,583 +$13 +1%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 11 $952 +$60 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 11 $826 +$21 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 11 $25,649 +$279 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 62% +$27,380
crypto 14% +$9,507
other 12% −$7,559
finance 11% +$1,474
politics 1% +$899
tech 1% +$460
sports 0% +$14
weather 0% +$14
economics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY No 92¢ $115 0m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY No 92¢ $20 9m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY No 92¢ $184 53m
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $44 2h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY No 92¢ $12 4h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY No 92¢ $23 4h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? BUY No 94¢ $16 4h
Kurds declare independence from Iran? BUY No 98¢ $7 5h
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, BUY No 92¢ $138 6h
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, BUY No 94¢ $424 7h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $6 8h
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $60 8h
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $481 8h
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $230 8h
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $34 8h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY No 92¢ $10 9h
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? BUY No 83¢ $1 9h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $197 9h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY No 92¢ $28 10h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY No 92¢ $115 10h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY No 92¢ $28 10h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY No 92¢ $106 10h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? SELL No 87¢ $1 10h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? SELL No 99¢ $99 11h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? SELL No 87¢ $1 11h
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? SELL Yes 99¢ $38 11h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? SELL No 87¢ $94 11h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY No 92¢ $5 11h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? SELL No 85¢ $170 11h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $196 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+39.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 105 -5.2% -14.2% 66% 23% -20.3%
≤30d 179 +53.6% +39.0% 72% 36% +3.0%
≤90d 179 +53.6% +39.0% 72% 36% +3.0%
all 179 +53.6% +39.0% 72% 36% +3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover160.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +39.0% 36% +3.0%
10% +25.7% 28% -6.8%
15% ← realistic here +13.5% 23% -15.8%
20% +2.4% 20% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $188,014.59 · official $188,132.47 (match) · 3500 history records