Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:06:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d72…b6e0 crypto 70 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (307 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$16 (+3%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate61%42W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day307.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (307 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -2.6% -11.9% 61% 39% -9.9%
≤30d 69 -2.6% -11.9% 61% 39% -9.9%
≤90d 69 -2.6% -11.9% 61% 39% -9.9%
all 69 -2.6% -11.9% 61% 39% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover307.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.9% 39% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 23% -18.5%
15% -28.0% 7% -26.4%
20% -35.1% 4% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses42 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)69 / 70
History coverage1d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day307.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Down 47¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$5 -37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$2 -37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$3 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$11 -60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$3 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $19 +$4 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$9 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $34 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$2 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $23 −$7 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$6 -22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$4 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $17 +$2 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$2 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $14 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$1 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$2 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $1 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $2 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $3 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $2 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $2 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $1 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $2 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $2 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $7 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.69 · official $1.23 (match) · 310 history records