Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:27:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d71…d6c4 crypto 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$10 (-5%) realized −$7 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate73%11W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day25.0pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% −$19
world 34% −$3
other 21% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -19.5% -27.2% 73% 20% -29.5%
≤30d 15 -19.5% -27.2% 73% 20% -29.5%
≤90d 15 -19.5% -27.2% 73% 20% -29.5%
all 15 -19.5% -27.2% 73% 20% -29.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.2% 20% -29.5%
10% ← realistic here -34.2% 7% -36.3%
15% -40.5% 7% -42.4%
20% -46.3% 0% -48.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses11 / 4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)15 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day25.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $40 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jacob Misiorowski win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? Yes 53¢ 49¢ $35 $32 −$3 (-8%)
Will Cristopher Sanchez win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? No 73¢ 72¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 12¢ $13 2h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 5h
Will Jacob Misiorowski win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? BUY Yes 53¢ $35 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 14h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 13¢ $14 16h
Will Cristopher Sanchez win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? BUY No 73¢ $30 17h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 13¢ $14 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.59 · official $100.59 (match) · 54 history records