Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:07:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
9D 0x9d71…b9c4 sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$470 (+16%) realized +$469 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$357per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$501now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$531
14 days+$466
30 days+$466
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 36% +$467
other 34% −$1
crypto 30% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +61.2% +45.8% 50% 50% +24.2%
≤30d 7 +26.5% +14.5% 57% 43% +8.4%
≤90d 7 +26.5% +14.5% 57% 43% +8.4%
all 7 +26.5% +14.5% 57% 43% +8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.5% 43% +8.4%
10% +3.5% 43% -2.0%
15% -6.5% 43% -11.5%
20% -15.7% 29% -20.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$169 vs −$70 · ×2.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.21 per $1 lost it wins $3.21
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$501
Realized+$469
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage11d
Avg bet$357
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $500 $501 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $470 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $489 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $280 +$220 +79%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $188 +$312 +166%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $355 +$145 +41%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $210 −$210 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $365 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $500 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $469 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $470 25h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $488 26h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $489 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 56¢ $280 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY BetBoom Team 37¢ $31 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY BetBoom Team 37¢ $0 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY BetBoom Team 37¢ $9 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY BetBoom Team 37¢ $147 6d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Legacy 71¢ $57 8d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Legacy 71¢ $2 8d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Legacy 71¢ $117 8d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Legacy 71¢ $117 8d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Legacy 71¢ $62 8d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY MIBR 42¢ $71 9d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY MIBR 42¢ $139 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $365 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $501.00 · official $501.00 (match) · 25 history records