Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:36:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9D 0x9d6f…2d07 other 15 markets active 2d ago coverage 458d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$9 (-3%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%5W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% $0
other 14% $0
politics 8% −$9
sports 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 40% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 40% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 40% 0% -9.4%
all 15 -13.5% -21.8% 33% 0% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 0% -12.5%
10% -29.3% 0% -20.9%
15% -36.1% 0% -28.5%
20% -42.4% 0% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

458d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses5 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage458d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $72 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $35 $0 -0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 -9%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Jun 26 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 17 $1 $0 +4%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 30 $12 $0 +1%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Mar 27 $12 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 20 $12 $0 -0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 17 $12 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 700 or more times March 14-21? Mar 15 $12 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $35 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $34 40h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $11 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $11 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $5 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $34 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $38 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $3 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $32 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $35 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $38 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 79¢ $38 4d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL Yes $2 6d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY Yes $1 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 64¢ $36 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 64¢ $36 6d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 90¢ $1 182d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York SELL No $0 355d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 383d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? BUY Yes $0 399d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1 411d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York BUY No 91¢ $9 426d
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? BUY No 96¢ $1 429d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? SELL No 67¢ $12 443d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? BUY No 67¢ $11 446d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? BUY No 67¢ $1 446d
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? SELL No 87¢ $12 446d
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? BUY No 87¢ $12 449d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 39 history records