Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:46:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d6e…4018 sports 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$857 (-20%) realized −$799 · open −$58
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate25%18W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day24.7pace
Fees−$108est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$688
other 14% −$213
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -17.3% -25.1% 25% 20% -29.1%
≤30d 71 -17.3% -25.1% 25% 20% -29.1%
≤90d 71 -17.3% -25.1% 25% 20% -29.1%
all 71 -17.3% -25.1% 25% 20% -29.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.1% 20% -29.1%
10% ← realistic here -32.3% 20% -35.9%
15% -38.8% 20% -42.1%
20% -44.8% 18% -47.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$40 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized−$799
Unrealized−$58
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses18 / 53
Est. fees paid−$108
Open positions3
Markets (closed)71 / 74
History coverage6d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day24.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $99 $98 −$1 (-1%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 3¢ 0¢ $30 $1 −$29 (-98%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs KT Rolster Challengers 28¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $21 +$229 +1115%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $182 −$83 -46%
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) Jun 17 $108 −$105 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $21 −$1 -2%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $67 −$65 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $98 +$68 +69%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 −$39 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: France 0 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $70 −$68 -97%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $70 $0 +1%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $62 −$60 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $118 −$20 -17%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $48 +$43 +88%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $44 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $54 −$53 -98%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $98 −$95 -97%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $28 +$93 +333%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $149 +$12 +8%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $59 −$57 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $60 −$40 -66%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $51 +$22 +43%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $113 +$138 +122%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 +$110 +107%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $108 +$8 +8%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $5 −$1 -20%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $62 −$60 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $231 −$32 -14%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $241 −$98 -40%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$12 +113%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $45 −$44 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$9 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $92 +$95 +103%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $31 $0 -1%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $24 −$20 -82%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $51 +$121 +237%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $72 −$70 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 3¢ $31 30m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $250 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 28¢ $28 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 8¢ $21 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $100 2h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 79¢ $83 3h
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) BUY Jordan 2¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 4h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 55¢ $114 5h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $98 5h
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) BUY Jordan 3¢ $98 5h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes 9¢ $20 6h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 13¢ $67 8h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 27¢ $60 9h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 47¢ $105 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 21¢ $98 11h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 4¢ $40 13h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 13h
Exact Score: France 0 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 1¢ $70 18h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner SELL Sashi Esport 35¢ $70 24h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Sashi Esport 34¢ $70 24h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 3¢ $51 27h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 3¢ $10 31h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 22¢ $10 32h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 10¢ $51 32h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 32h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 4¢ $92 40h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Cabo Verde 47¢ $91 41h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 24¢ $48 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.16 · official $98.16 (match) · 158 history records