trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 2 | -41.2% | -46.8% | 50% | 50% | -46.8% |
| all | 26 | -83.6% | -85.2% | 8% | 8% | -95.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -85.2% | 8% | -95.0% |
| 10% | -86.6% | 4% | -95.4% |
| 15% | -87.9% | 4% | -95.9% |
| 20% | -89.1% | 4% | -96.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $70 | $56 | −$14 (-20%) |
| Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? | Yes | 18¢ | 18¢ | $29 | $28 | −$1 (-3%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ethereum reach $2,500 April 27-May 3? | May 02 | $1 | −$1 | -93% |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | May 02 | $1 | $0 | +18% |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,500 December 29-January 4? | Jan 02 | $21 | −$21 | -100% |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,300 December 29-January 4? | Jan 02 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,700 December 29-January 4? | Jan 02 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? | Dec 31 | $108 | −$108 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? | Dec 31 | $27 | −$27 | -100% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on December 30? | Dec 30 | $9 | −$9 | -100% |
| Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? | Dec 29 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7? | Nov 06 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Nov 05 | $55 | −$55 | -100% |
| Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | Oct 28 | $1,218 | −$1,218 | -100% |
| Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025? | Jul 12 | $77 | −$77 | -100% |
| Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31? | Jul 12 | $102 | −$26 | -25% |
| Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Jul 04 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will Peter Dutton be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the 20 | May 02 | $103 | −$103 | -100% |
| Ethereum all time high by June 30? | Apr 29 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Super Bowl LIX Winner | Feb 10 | $705 | −$36 | -5% |
| Bitcoin above $105,000 on February 7? | Feb 06 | $13 | −$13 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after January 2025 meeting? | Jan 29 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting? | Jan 29 | $240 | −$240 | -100% |
| Will Trump say "drill baby drill" at debate? | Jan 29 | $35 | −$35 | -100% |
| O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili | Sep 15 | $44 | −$44 | -100% |
| Ethereum above $2,400 on September 13? | Sep 13 | $20 | +$23 | +113% |
| Who will win the debate according to polls? | Sep 11 | $56 | −$44 | -79% |
| Bitcoin all time high in August? | Aug 18 | $176 | −$176 | -100% |