Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:27:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d6a…e6f9 weather 181 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (111 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized +$47 · open −$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate89%146W / 18L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day110.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$186now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (111 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 164 +1.5% -8.1% 89% 16% -7.0%
≤30d 164 +1.5% -8.1% 89% 16% -7.0%
≤90d 164 +1.5% -8.1% 89% 16% -7.0%
all 164 +1.5% -8.1% 89% 16% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover110.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.1% 16% -7.0%
10% ← realistic here -16.9% 4% -15.9%
15% -25.0% 1% -24.1%
20% -32.3% 0% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$186
Realized+$47
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses146 / 18
Open positions17
Markets (closed)164 / 181
History coverage4d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day110.9
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 21? No 95¢ 100¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+5%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 21? No 93¢ 89¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on June 21? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 21? No 87¢ 94¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 21? No 91¢ 84¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 21? No 88¢ 88¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 21? No 99¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 21? No 99¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 21? No 99¢ 97¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 21? No 98¢ 94¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 21? No 89¢ 92¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 21? No 97¢ 98¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 21? No 95¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 21? No 93¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 21? No 97¢ 4¢ $22 $1 −$21 (-96%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? Yes 80¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $44 +$4 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $32 +$7 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 21? Jun 21 $20 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 21? Jun 21 $10 −$4 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 21? Jun 21 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $20 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 21? Jun 21 $5 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 21? Jun 21 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $10 +$2 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $10 −$3 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 20? Jun 21 $2 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 20? Jun 21 $3 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 20? Jun 21 $3 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 20? Jun 21 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 20? Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 20? Jun 21 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 20? Jun 21 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 20? Jun 21 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 20? Jun 21 $5 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 20? Jun 21 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on June 20? Jun 21 $8 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 20? Jun 21 $8 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 20? Jun 21 $11 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 20? Jun 21 $11 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 21 $11 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 20? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 20? Jun 20 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 20? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 20? Jun 20 $5 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 20? Jun 20 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $7 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 20? Jun 20 $9 +$1 +12%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 +$3 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 20? Jun 20 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $6 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 20? Jun 20 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on June 20? Jun 20 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 +$2 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 21? BUY No 89¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 21? BUY No 93¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 21? BUY No 88¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 21? SELL No 99¢ $48 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 21? BUY No 97¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 95¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 21? BUY No 86¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $39 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 21? BUY No 88¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 21? BUY No 97¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 21? SELL No 99¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 21? BUY No 97¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 21? BUY No 92¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 21? BUY No 96¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 21? BUY No 95¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $23 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 21? BUY No 97¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 21? BUY No 88¢ $10 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 21? BUY No 94¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? BUY No 54¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $186.50 · official $186.74 (match) · 428 history records