Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:01:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9D 0x9d6a…9c1b other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$153 (+33%) realized +$153 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$123
crypto 9% +$28
sports 6% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +8.4% -2.0% 54% 54% +25.8%
≤30d 13 +8.4% -2.0% 54% 54% +25.8%
≤90d 13 +8.4% -2.0% 54% 54% +25.8%
all 13 +8.4% -2.0% 54% 54% +25.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.0% 54% +25.8%
10% -11.3% 46% +13.8%
15% -19.9% 46% +2.8%
20% -27.8% 23% -7.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$5 · ×5.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.96 per $1 lost it wins $5.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized+$153
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)13 / 16
History coverage6d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $55 $55 +$0 (+1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+4%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $112 +$54 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $84 +$40 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $41 +$28 +70%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $42 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 -10%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $40 +$29 +73%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$14 +48%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$10 +320%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $12 39m
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $12 40m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $35 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $87 17h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 17h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $124 17h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $32 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $52 20h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $69 20h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 31h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 39h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $42 39h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $68 39h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $24 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 4d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 4d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 5d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $13 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 5d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.13 · official $79.14 (match) · 31 history records