Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:14:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
9D 0x9d67…1fa5 sports 98 markets active 2h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7,616 (-21%) realized −$7,527 · open −$89
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%32W / 58L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$369per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$250est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1,421now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,180
7 days+$272
14 days−$766
30 days−$1,746
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$6,982
other 29% +$606
world 2% −$109
crypto 1% +$206
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +6.8% -3.4% 40% 40% -7.2%
≤30d 60 -4.3% -13.4% 37% 37% -18.0%
≤90d 61 -5.9% -14.8% 36% 36% -19.7%
all 90 -10.7% -19.2% 36% 36% -27.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 36% -27.5%
10% -26.9% 34% -34.4%
15% -34.0% 32% -40.7%
20% -40.5% 30% -46.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -16% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$396 vs −$325 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$1,421
Realized−$7,527
Unrealized−$89
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses32 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$250
Open positions4
Markets (closed)90 / 98
History coverage471d
Avg bet$369
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $704 $641 −$63 (-9%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 39¢ 38¢ $588 $573 −$15 (-2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $188 $121 −$67 (-36%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $30 $86 +$56 (+188%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $783 −$770 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $304 +$196 +64%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $204 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $68 −$66 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $304 −$300 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $203 −$200 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $304 +$232 +76%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $508 −$500 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $305 −$301 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $304 −$300 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $539 +$491 +91%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $304 +$196 +65%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $304 +$213 +70%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $204 +$421 +206%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $305 −$301 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $304 −$300 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $304 +$251 +83%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $455 +$253 +56%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $225 +$201 +89%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $506 −$500 -99%
Spread: Algeria (-2.5) Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -97%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $91 +$1,020 +1116%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $338 −$335 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $407 +$545 +134%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $113 +$245 +216%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $103 +$21 +20%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $531 +$1,306 +246%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $355 −$350 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $304 +$251 +82%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $219 −$214 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $303 +$166 +55%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $455 −$450 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Jun 13 $90 −$88 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $304 −$300 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $304 −$300 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $253 −$250 -99%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $51 +$166 +325%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $869 +$951 +109%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $305 +$426 +140%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $113 −$111 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 39¢ $305 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $320 2h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 40¢ $293 4h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $314 4h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY 27¢ $294 4h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $295 4h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 44¢ $783 6h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $499 6h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 25¢ $204 6h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 15¢ $68 7h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $304 8h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $835 9h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 31h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 31h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $304 32h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Will Norway win on 2 BUY 11¢ $273 32h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $101 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 54¢ $203 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $203 2d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 48¢ $508 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $305 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $304 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $304 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $821 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $513 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $233 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $305 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $305 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $304 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $304 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,421.04 · official $1,975.03 · 190 history records