Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:04:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9D 0x9d64…61a5 world 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate50%12W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% −$5
other 16% $0
sports 5% +$3
finance 5% $0
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.4% -9.9% 36% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 13 -0.2% -9.7% 38% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 13 -0.2% -9.7% 38% 0% -10.2%
all 24 +1.6% -8.1% 50% 8% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 8% -9.7%
10% -16.9% 4% -18.3%
15% -24.9% 4% -26.2%
20% -32.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses12 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage486d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $39 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $36 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $43 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $76 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $16 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $60 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $29 +$1 +3%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $71 −$1 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $35 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $80 −$6 -7%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $44 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Jun 24 $9 $0 +2%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? May 21 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 21 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 21 $9 $0 +1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 27 $2 $0 -10%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 21 $11 $0 -0%
California vs. Louisville Mar 04 $14 −$2 -18%
Louisville vs. Virginia Tech Mar 04 $12 +$2 +20%
Stony Brook vs. Hampton Feb 25 $8 +$3 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $39 28m
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $39 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $25 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $11 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $36 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $36 15h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $36 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $13 24h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $23 24h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $22 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $14 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $40 33h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $40 34h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $21 40h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $19 40h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $40 40h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $16 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $16 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $1 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $2 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $1 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $39 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $39 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $30 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 39¢ $10 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 39¢ $19 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $31 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 77 history records