Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:28:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9D 0x9d64…219c sports 201 markets active 0h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$34 (+0%) realized +$34 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate99%197W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$410now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$22
14 days+$69
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$159
other 4% −$134
world 1% +$2
crypto 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 4% -8.8%
≤30d 135 +0.0% -9.5% 99% 2% -9.6%
≤90d 198 +0.2% -9.3% 99% 2% -9.4%
all 198 +0.2% -9.3% 99% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 2% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$135 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$410
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses197 / 1
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)198 / 201
History coverage44d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 198 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Rainbow Six Siege: Team Secret vs Fnatic (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage 1 Group Stage Fnatic 100¢ 100¢ $137 $137 +$0 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Prestige 100¢ 100¢ $137 $137 +$0 (+0%)
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team AION (BO3) - European Pro League Group A 4ikibamboni 100¢ 100¢ $137 $136 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs SINQU Rehti (BO3) - Urban Riga Open #5 Playo Jun 29 $137 $0 +0%
Overwatch: Dallas Fuel vs LuneX Gaming (BO3) - OCS North America Stage Jun 29 $82 $0 +0%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs OpTic Texas (BO7) - Call of Duty Jun 28 $137 $0 +0%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Paris Gentle Mates (BO5) - Call of Duty L Jun 28 $137 $0 +0%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fluxo W7M vs LOS (BO1) - South America League Stage Jun 27 $137 $0 +0%
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Los Angeles Thieves (BO5) - Call of Duty L Jun 27 $137 $0 +0%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Dut Jun 27 $137 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: eSuba vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 27 $137 $0 +0%
Call of Duty: Boston Breach vs Vancouver Surge (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Jun 26 $137 $0 +0%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Jun 26 $137 $0 +0%
Honor of Kings: JD Gaming vs Talent Gaming (BO5) - King Pro League Sta Jun 26 $137 $0 +0%
Overwatch: Cheeseburger vs O2 Blast (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group St Jun 26 $137 $0 +0%
Rainbow Six Siege: Outlast vs Cloud9 (BO1) - North America League Stag Jun 25 $32 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ Jun 24 $120 +$17 +14%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 24 $137 $0 +0%
Honor of Kings: Rogue Warriors vs Kuaishou Gaming (BO5) - King Pro Lea Jun 24 $60 $0 +0%
Plovdiv: Daniel Michalski vs Jelle Sels Jun 24 $137 $0 +0%
Overwatch: MURASH GAMING vs ENTER FORCE.36 (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 G Jun 24 $137 $0 +0%
Honor of Kings: TOP Esports Armor vs SYGaming (BO5) - King Pro League Jun 24 $137 $0 +0%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoriya Tomova Jun 23 $137 $0 +0%
Rainbow Six Siege: Shaiikademy vs Arcade Esports (BO1) - Asia Pacific Jun 23 $111 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: QUINTESSÊNCIA vs 4M (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A J Jun 23 $137 $0 +0%
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League S Jun 22 $7 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - TESFED League Pl Jun 22 $136 +$1 +1%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Elias Ymer Jun 22 $27 $0 +0%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: FORZE Esports vs Virtus.pro (BO5) - BetBoom Jun 22 $127 +$10 +8%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 21 $137 $0 +0%
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Duty L Jun 21 $137 $0 +0%
Overwatch: Virtus.pro vs Telacy (BO3) - OCS EMEA Stage 2 Group Stage Jun 21 $137 $0 +0%
Rainbow Six Siege: Team Liquid vs LOUD (BO1) - South America League St Jun 21 $134 +$3 +2%
Counter-Strike: Alpha Gaming vs CHAOS (BO3) - United21 Group C Jun 21 $137 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Rostik999 Club vs Rostikfacekid Club (BO3) - Winline Star Seri Jun 21 $1 $0 +1%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 21 $137 $0 +0%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 21 $137 $0 +0%
Overwatch: O2 Blast vs Crazy Raccoon (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group S Jun 21 $137 $0 +0%
Honor of Kings: Royal Never Give Up vs eStar Pro (BO5) - King Pro Leag Jun 21 $137 $0 +0%
Overwatch: Spacestation Gaming vs The Kafe (BO3) - OCS North America S Jun 21 $2 $0 +0%
Overwatch: Virtus.pro vs Al Qadsiah (BO3) - OCS EMEA Stage 2 Group Sta Jun 20 $136 +$1 +1%
Rainbow Six Siege: FaZe Clan vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO1) - South Americ Jun 20 $137 $0 +0%
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Los Angeles Thieves (BO5) - Call of D Jun 20 $137 $0 +0%
Rainbow Six Siege: INTZ vs LOUD (BO1) - South America League Stage 1 G Jun 20 $137 $0 +0%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Simona Waltert Jun 20 $118 +$19 +16%
Overwatch: Cheeseburger vs T1 (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stage Jun 20 $137 $0 +0%
Honor of Kings: Team WE vs Talent Gaming (BO5) - King Pro League Stage Jun 20 $17 $0 +0%
Overwatch: ZETA DIVISION vs ZANSIDE GAMING (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 G Jun 20 $137 $0 +0%
Honor of Kings: LGD NBW vs Hero JiuJing (BO5) - King Pro League Stage Jun 20 $137 $0 +0%
Overwatch: Poker Face vs SuperBad (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stag Jun 20 $131 +$6 +4%
Counter-Strike: Arch vs WBT Academy (BO3) - ESEA European Finals Playo Jun 19 $112 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 19 $136 +$1 +1%
Honor of Kings: AG Super Play vs Kuaishou Gaming (BO5) - King Pro Leag Jun 19 $137 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Rainbow Six Siege: Team Secret vs Fnatic (BO1) - Europe MENA League St BUY Fnatic 100¢ $83 26m
Rainbow Six Siege: Team Secret vs Fnatic (BO1) - Europe MENA League St BUY Fnatic 100¢ $26 26m
Rainbow Six Siege: Team Secret vs Fnatic (BO1) - Europe MENA League St BUY Fnatic 100¢ $28 30m
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team AION (BO3) - European Pro League Group A BUY 4ikibamboni 100¢ $137 1h
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs SINQU Rehti (BO3) - Urban Riga Open #5 Playo BUY ASTRAL 100¢ $137 1h
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffs BUY Prestige 100¢ $137 1h
Overwatch: Dallas Fuel vs LuneX Gaming (BO3) - OCS North America Stage BUY Dallas Fuel 100¢ $20 11h
Overwatch: Dallas Fuel vs LuneX Gaming (BO3) - OCS North America Stage BUY Dallas Fuel 100¢ $15 12h
Overwatch: Dallas Fuel vs LuneX Gaming (BO3) - OCS North America Stage BUY Dallas Fuel 100¢ $16 13h
Overwatch: Dallas Fuel vs LuneX Gaming (BO3) - OCS North America Stage BUY Dallas Fuel 100¢ $5 16h
Overwatch: Dallas Fuel vs LuneX Gaming (BO3) - OCS North America Stage BUY Dallas Fuel 100¢ $25 16h
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs OpTic Texas (BO7) - Call of Duty BUY OpTic Texas 100¢ $137 22h
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Paris Gentle Mates (BO5) - Call of Duty L BUY OpTic Texas 100¢ $134 24h
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Paris Gentle Mates (BO5) - Call of Duty L BUY OpTic Texas 100¢ $3 24h
Rainbow Six Siege: Fluxo W7M vs LOS (BO1) - South America League Stage BUY Fluxo W7M 100¢ $41 47h
Rainbow Six Siege: Fluxo W7M vs LOS (BO1) - South America League Stage BUY Fluxo W7M 100¢ $14 47h
Rainbow Six Siege: Fluxo W7M vs LOS (BO1) - South America League Stage BUY Fluxo W7M 100¢ $33 47h
Rainbow Six Siege: Fluxo W7M vs LOS (BO1) - South America League Stage BUY Fluxo W7M 100¢ $43 47h
Rainbow Six Siege: Fluxo W7M vs LOS (BO1) - South America League Stage BUY Fluxo W7M 100¢ $3 47h
Rainbow Six Siege: Fluxo W7M vs LOS (BO1) - South America League Stage BUY Fluxo W7M 100¢ $2 47h
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Los Angeles Thieves (BO5) - Call of Duty L BUY Los Angeles Thieves 100¢ $137 2d
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Dut BUY Paris Gentle Mates 100¢ $137 2d
Counter-Strike: eSuba vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffs BUY MASQ 100¢ $36 2d
Counter-Strike: eSuba vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffs BUY MASQ 100¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: eSuba vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffs BUY MASQ 100¢ $35 2d
Counter-Strike: eSuba vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffs BUY MASQ 100¢ $11 2d
Counter-Strike: eSuba vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffs BUY MASQ 100¢ $12 2d
Counter-Strike: eSuba vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffs BUY MASQ 100¢ $18 2d
Counter-Strike: eSuba vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffs BUY MASQ 100¢ $20 2d
Call of Duty: Boston Breach vs Vancouver Surge (BO5) - Call of Duty Le BUY Boston Breach 100¢ $94 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $410.25 · official $410.25 (match) · 545 history records