Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:53:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
9D 0x9d5f…84bf sports 1437 markets active 2h ago coverage 335d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Covers last 334d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,287 (-2%) realized −$3,294 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate55%789W / 644L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$434est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$352now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days−$151
14 days−$169
30 days−$989
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$1,439
crypto 16% −$345
other 1% +$44
world 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +1.4% -8.3% 54% 54% -15.3%
≤30d 143 -8.5% -17.2% 49% 49% -18.7%
≤90d 442 -2.4% -11.7% 54% 48% -12.4%
all 1433 -0.4% -9.9% 55% 51% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 51% -10.6%
10% -18.5% 46% -19.1%
15% -26.4% 42% -26.9%
20% -33.6% 37% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$74 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

335d coverage
Net worth$352
Realized−$3,294
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses789 / 644
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$434
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1433 / 1437
History coverage335d ⚠
Avg bet$106
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1433 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 55¢ 56¢ $214 $220 +$6 (+3%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Tampa Bay Rays 38¢ 38¢ $79 $80 +$1 (+1%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Minnesota Twins 41¢ 42¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+1%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Athletics 53¢ 52¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $57 −$57 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 14 $57 −$1 -1%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $22 +$17 +79%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $182 +$163 +90%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $38 +$47 +124%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 14 $38 −$38 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $302 −$302 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $38 +$34 +90%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $65 +$63 +97%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $70 +$60 +86%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $5 +$3 +67%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $6 +$5 +86%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $29 +$23 +79%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 12 $91 −$91 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 12 $99 −$99 -100%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Jun 12 $39 +$16 +40%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $22 +$5 +24%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $187 +$111 +60%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $29 +$28 +97%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $54 −$4 -7%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $211 +$143 +68%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 11 $8 +$2 +29%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $153 +$95 +62%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $24 +$27 +109%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 10 $25 +$13 +55%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $56 −$56 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $89 −$89 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $203 −$203 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $53 +$60 +114%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 07 $31 −$31 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $15 −$15 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 07 $217 −$217 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $216 +$145 +67%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 07 $28 +$26 +93%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 07 $74 +$44 +60%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $25 +$28 +109%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $57 +$37 +65%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 06 $31 +$25 +79%
Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire Jun 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 06 $92 −$92 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 06 $2 +$1 +70%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 05 $200 +$179 +90%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 53¢ $18 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 41¢ $18 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 38¢ $55 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 41¢ $16 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 55¢ $58 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 38¢ $25 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 55¢ $159 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL Detroit Tigers 52¢ $56 24h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 46¢ $3 32h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 52¢ $43 32h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 53¢ $57 32h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 51¢ $57 32h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 55¢ $22 32h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 44¢ $38 32h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 46¢ $2 32h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 52¢ $140 32h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Los Angeles Sparks 53¢ $70 2d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Las Vegas Aces 59¢ $5 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 52¢ $38 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 50¢ $33 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 50¢ $32 2d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 56¢ $38 2d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 54¢ $33 2d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 54¢ $105 2d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 54¢ $164 2d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 50¢ $32 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 53¢ $6 2d
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 55¢ $29 3d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 49¢ $40 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 50¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $351.91 · official $351.95 (match) · 3500 history records