Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:40:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9D 0x9d5a…d0f0 sports 129 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,738 (+16%) realized +$4,568 · open +$170
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate61%78W / 49L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$225per market
Trades / day29.2pace
Fees−$271est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$505now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$4,003
other 5% +$1,078
world 3% −$870
crypto 1% −$208
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 127 +6.1% -4.0% 61% 55% +2.6%
≤30d 127 +6.1% -4.0% 61% 55% +2.6%
≤90d 127 +6.1% -4.0% 61% 55% +2.6%
all 127 +6.1% -4.0% 61% 55% +2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.0% 55% +2.6%
10% ← realistic here -13.2% 45% -7.2%
15% -21.6% 38% -16.2%
20% -29.3% 31% -24.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$135 vs −$136 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$505
Realized+$4,568
Unrealized+$170
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses78 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$271
Open positions2
Markets (closed)127 / 129
History coverage6d
Avg bet$225
Trades / day29.2
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Petra Marcinko 66¢ 100¢ $330 $500 +$170 (+51%)
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Enrico Dalla Valle Sebastian Ofner 92¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke Jun 17 $1,465 −$408 -28%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman Jun 17 $1,072 +$923 +86%
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 17 $123 −$120 -98%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Federico Bondioli Jun 17 $3 +$2 +48%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $54 +$6 +12%
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Jun 17 $0 $0 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $545 +$205 +38%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $40 +$11 +29%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $477 +$545 +114%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 17 $5 −$4 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $824 +$176 +21%
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $405 +$641 +158%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +34%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $18 +$11 +60%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $25 +$1 +5%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $6 +$19 +344%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $11 +$16 +146%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $657 +$343 +52%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $625 +$196 +31%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $3 −$2 -97%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $415 −$408 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $296 −$290 -98%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 17 $484 −$262 -54%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $21 +$22 +105%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $12 +$14 +119%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $254 +$289 +114%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $530 +$231 +44%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $44 +$56 +129%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $98 +$2 +2%
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami Jun 16 $17 +$7 +39%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom Jun 16 $6 +$4 +60%
Royan: Franco Ribero vs Pavel Kotov Jun 16 $7 +$3 +43%
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 16 $8 +$4 +48%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Angelina Voloshchuk Jun 16 $304 +$196 +65%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $155 +$111 +72%
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Mai Hontama Jun 16 $28 +$16 +56%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $131 +$19 +14%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $4 +$1 +29%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $107 −$105 -98%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $400 +$202 +50%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $397 −$395 -99%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 16 $249 −$245 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Elena Micic vs Francisca Jorge Jun 16 $333 +$167 +50%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 16 $831 +$169 +20%
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $676 −$171 -25%
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Jun 16 $368 +$132 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Enrico Dalla Valle BUY Sebastian Ofner 92¢ $5 18m
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke BUY Christopher OConnell 98¢ $490 59m
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke BUY Christopher OConnell 98¢ $490 59m
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke BUY Christopher OConnell 60¢ $34 1h
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke BUY Jay Clarke 63¢ $369 1h
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke BUY Jay Clarke 56¢ $80 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann BUY Barbora Palicova 21¢ $123 1h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Laslo Djere 52¢ $294 2h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Laslo Djere 52¢ $294 2h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Laslo Djere 52¢ $289 2h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Laslo Djere 58¢ $193 3h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 40¢ $2 3h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Federico Bondioli BUY Marco Cecchinato 67¢ $3 3h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva BUY Julia Grabher 22¢ $0 3h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Laslo Djere 64¢ $2 3h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 89¢ $54 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $20 8h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $20 8h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $545 9h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 18¢ $5 10h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 44¢ $458 10h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 82¢ $824 10h
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) BUY Athletics 33¢ $1 10h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 79¢ $20 10h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 10¢ $3 11h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 42¢ $415 12h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 82¢ $470 13h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 40¢ $11 13h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 22¢ $6 13h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $18 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $504.75 · official $504.75 (match) · 259 history records